Asian League · resolved market
Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-05-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63a827ebe197128569d2af3ced9a787072488d1fbe24d4411dc0ad7d56698c8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26a6…dedebacked Yes | 4c | 3,750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 11c | 2,393$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.66 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ec…3630backed Yes | 4c | 975.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d4…ad01backed Yes | 36c | 899.97$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.99 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…dc30backed Yes | 4c | 750.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 19c | 321.36$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.24 | 441 | 52.4%231 W · 210 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 18c | 232.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 35c | 202.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.03 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 66c | 138.53$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 20c | 120.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 738 | 50.3%371 W · 367 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 63c | 111$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.07 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 66c | 109.34$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 237 | 55.3%131 W · 106 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 66c | 88.47$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e1…f17fbacked No | 66c | 87.88$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 64c | 80.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 64c | 80.08$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…5694backed No | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 65 | 38.5%25 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 37c | 54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 282 | 51.4%145 W · 137 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 63c | 53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 65c | 37.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 64c | 22.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.13 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…72b2backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked No | 77c | 17.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-05-06?this page
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama end in a draw?No won
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-05-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.