Asian League · resolved market
Will V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc6a6ba02b3d1b36b00c6cf424f1a58db93bc43bfa8af4ece206bda2aeda4cf59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,106
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,106 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 78c | 12,373$9,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,706.56 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 25c | 4,764$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.19 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…dedebacked Yes | 11c | 2,727$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 23c | 1,295$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.25 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 24c | 1,250$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.5 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 22c | 880.11$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.4 | 968 | 46.1%446 W · 522 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 226 | 42.5%96 W · 130 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 69c | 198$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.89 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c7…4459backed Yes | 11c | 177.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Yes | 26c | 142.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 17c | 135.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 282 | 51.4%145 W · 137 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 77c | 134.56$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.73 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…4f53backed Yes | 16c | 121.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 22c | 107.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 441 | 52.4%231 W · 210 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed No | 70c | 103.29$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 74c | 97.63$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550c…55fdbacked Yes | 31c | 94.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 30c | 83.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.17 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Yes | 31c | 77.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 24c | 74.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 71.96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…5294backed No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 72cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…9db1backed Yes | 30c | 65.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 35.9%23 W · 41 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d85…5c50backed Yes | 31c | 65.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…e471backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 22c | 57.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 464 | 22.6%105 W · 359 L | -22.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 57.17$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…13eebacked Yes | 32c | 55.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked No | 79c | 55.01$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Yes | 22c | 50.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 142 | 47.2%67 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e1…62a2backed No | 76c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 70c | 47.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 135 | 63.7%86 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Yes | 26c | 47.74$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 159 | 71.1%113 W · 46 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e0…a433backed Yes | 27c | 43.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 24c | 42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 31c | 40.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4880…5626backed Yes | 31c | 40.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 29c | 40.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d43…d0ddbacked No | 71c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23f5…e89cbacked No | 78c | 38.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked No | 69c | 38.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9663…5b70backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 78c | 20.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 74c | 16.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama end in a draw?this page
- Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-05-06?No won
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-05-06?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.