TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x550c…55fd

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
77
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: NBA, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 59 out of 100; worst NHL at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2026, EDT2035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-44.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jasmine Paolini vs Leolia Jeanjeanbacked Leolia Jeanjean · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.1
Istanbul: Carole Monnet vs Francesca Jonesbacked Francesca Jones · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$5.16
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Federico Cina vs Alexander Blockxbacked Federico Cina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.1
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marcos Giron vs Marin Cilicbacked Marcos Giron · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.7
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jacob Fearnley vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricardbacked Jacob Fearnley · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.4
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Simona Waltertbacked Yulia Starodubtseva · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.8
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneirobacked Jessica Bouzas Maneiro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.4
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Carreno Busta vs Alejandro Tabilobacked Pablo Carreno Busta · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.7
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Katie Boulter vs Eva Lysbacked Katie Boulter · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$203Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$203.34
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Dalma Galfi vs Anastasia Potapovabacked Dalma Galfi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.5
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Rebeka Masarovabacked Rebeka Masarova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+47.2%+$27.75
Brazzaville: Karan Singh vs Digvijaypratap Singhbacked Digvijaypratap Singh · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.4
Wuxi: Alastair Gray vs Jie Cuibacked Jie Cui · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+72.2%+$84.96
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Aleksandar Vukic vs Patrick Kypsonbacked Aleksandar Vukic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+68.6%+$15.4
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munarbacked Matteo Arnaldi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$88Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+102.8%+$90.67
Brazzaville: Matyas Cerny vs Bor Artnakbacked Matyas Cerny · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$18.02
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Francisco Comesanabacked Francisco Comesana · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.4
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Laura Siegemund vs Sara Bejlekbacked Sara Bejlek · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.8
Jiujiang: Carol Zhao vs Xiaodi Youbacked Xiaodi You · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$4.64
Jiujiang: Heather Watson vs Kyoka Okamurabacked Kyoka Okamura · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.4
All 20 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2026, EDT1442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-34.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Asian League — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Shabab Saudi Club win on 2026-05-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.75
Al Shabab Saudi Club vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$19.6
Al Ahli Saudi Club vs. Al Fateh Saudi Club: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$103Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$102.9
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+26.2%+$7.71
Yunnan Yukun FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.4
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+59%+$17.34
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Qingdao Hainiu FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$12.03
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.4
Will Kyōto Sanga FC win on 2026-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.7
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$13.21
Will Shimizu S-Pulse win on 2026-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.7
Will Cerezo Ōsaka win on 2026-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.66
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$11.43
Will V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.4
All 14 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2026, EDT1275%9 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+56.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
NBA — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$18.8
Timberwolves vs. Spursbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.82
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.4
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 215.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.1
76ers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$206Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+25%+$51.46
76ers vs. Knicks: 1H Moneylinebacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+248.3%+$145.99
Spread: Thunder (-14.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$125.22
Spread: Thunder (-16.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+159.5%+$41.67
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$54.6
Spread: Pistons (-3.5)backed Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$147Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+26.4%+$38.82
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$10.22
Spread: Celtics (-7.5)backed Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+119.4%+$71.43
All 12 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will São Paulo FC win on 2026-05-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$10.22
Will CSyD Macará win on 2026-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.8
Will Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$28.2
Audax CS Italiano vs. CR Vasco da Gama: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.8
Will Cusco FC vs. Estudiantes de La Plata end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+194.1%+$114.14
Club Always Ready vs. CA Lanús: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$13.21
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$30.6
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$4.9
Will Barcelona SC vs. CA Boca Juniors end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.7
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-05-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.56
All 10 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+61.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Champions League — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Avalanche vs. Wildbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.7
Canadiens vs. Sabresbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.1
All 2 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-2.5)backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Torino FC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card)backed Tatsuro Taira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs Misa Esports (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Cup #4 Playoffsbacked 9INE · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved May 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-07?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.56
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.