Asian League · resolved market
Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-05-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25132a85784c8a4d7e9033d1b409b60703b4985d5404a86669c3e9b22c0dc79e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,824
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 59c | 11,019$6,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,498.25 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 31c | 10,758$3,304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,303.58 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…1914backed No | 59c | 2,567$1,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,514.72 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 2c | 1,292$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.69 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 25c | 711.29$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.76 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked No | 38c | 469$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.22 | 142 | 47.2%67 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 3c | 446.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed No | 30c | 444$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 57 | 63.2%36 W · 21 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 31c | 249.15$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 24c | 199.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c04…a5c1backed Yes | 43c | 186.05$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.05 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed Yes | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 192 | 68.2%131 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…e471backed Yes | 41c | 135$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.92 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 28c | 132.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ff…abd0backed Yes | 40c | 108.36$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 18c | 103.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 31c | 102.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed No | 36c | 100.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 154 | 70.8%109 W · 45 L | +16.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 237 | 55.3%131 W · 106 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 28c | 90.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0199…4e86backed No | 34c | 86.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed No | 60c | 85.78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked No | 37c | 77.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.82 | 159 | 71.1%113 W · 46 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 61c | 62.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 1,028 | 41.7%429 W · 599 L | -31.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…475bbacked Yes | 35c | 52.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed No | 35c | 52.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 166 | 59.6%99 W · 67 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 61c | 50.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 899 | 55.1%495 W · 404 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 57c | 50.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 59c | 45.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…aa5abacked No | 75c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 279 | 64.9%181 W · 98 L | +28.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x550c…55fdbacked Yes | 69c | 42.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6d…fc98backed Yes | 40c | 40.2$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.12 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -36%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 62c | 40.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked No | 29c | 36.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89db…d0efbacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 59c | 32.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 245 | 48.6%119 W · 126 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 76c | 29.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked No | 37c | 28.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…72b2backed No | 41c | 27.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 55c | 26.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 441 | 52.4%231 W · 210 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x762b…76d4backed Yes | 74c | 25.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 60c | 20.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-05-06?this page
- Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-05-06?No won
- Will Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.