TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Wuxi: Alastair Gray vs Jie Cui

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Jie Cuiof Alastair Gray, Jie Cui
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$189,260
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$192,627

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $189,260 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x507e…beaebacked Jie Cui23c35,500$8,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,273.557,01843.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L+124.9wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Jie Cui35c10,271$3,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,708.548,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Alastair Gray46c10,112$4,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,683.251,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Jie Cui51c3,565$1,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,732.134,60267.8%3,119 W · 1,483 L+309.9wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+5.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Jie Cui44c3,415$1,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,912.812,52339.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L-3.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Alastair Gray37c3,325$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.14,97538.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L-19.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa08…d98abacked Jie Cui68c2,951$2,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$947.9725661.3%157 W · 99 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Alastair Gray28c2,931$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.549,03836.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L-196.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x288c…3641backed Jie Cui70c2,907$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.069430.9%29 W · 65 L-4.8wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1b6…e0a0backed Alastair Gray63c2,551$1,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,59513363.2%84 W · 49 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Jie Cui15c2,235$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,895.934,25345%1,912 W · 2,341 L+20.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Jie Cui21c2,166$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,705.535,00941.4%2,075 W · 2,934 L-82.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Alastair Gray63c1,763$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,117.5111,66643.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L+22.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Jie Cui32c1,685$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.73,88435%1,358 W · 2,526 L+92.8wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f3…8dd9backed Jie Cui75c1,680$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.044562.2%28 W · 17 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Alastair Gray56c1,569$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.3658639.6%232 W · 354 L-21.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4d3…c2f0backed Alastair Gray64c1,563$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00033556.7%190 W · 145 L-27.7wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-15.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Jie Cui29c1,531$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.812,34351.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L+95.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dfe…a5d6backed Alastair Gray66c1,515$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00050458.9%297 W · 207 L+9.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Jie Cui62c1,506$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$565.785,42256.3%3,054 W · 2,368 L+231.5wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Alastair Gray66c1,482$979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$979.0114757.1%84 W · 63 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Jie Cui46c1,479$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.151,53240.7%624 W · 908 L-48.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Jie Cui41c1,403$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.174,76049.6%2,361 W · 2,399 L+176.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Alastair Gray61c1,401$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.8241060.5%248 W · 162 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Alastair Gray59c1,357$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Jie Cui34c1,225$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.3925234.1%86 W · 166 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-17.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde27…2cfdbacked Jie Cui45c1,178$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.764247.6%20 W · 22 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Alastair Gray53c1,105$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.914,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf677…0e56backed Jie Cui64c933.62$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.6228550.2%143 W · 142 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba06…0004backed Alastair Gray60c899.95$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.9715151%77 W · 74 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb77…ef9ebacked Jie Cui61c814.1$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.194968.1%646 W · 303 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Jie Cui45c804.08$361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.266,51254.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L+289.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Jie Cui34c782.35$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.351,88344.8%843 W · 1,040 L+36.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb171…39eebacked Alastair Gray47c761.48$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.568235.4%29 W · 53 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95c5…d5d3backed Alastair Gray66c759.36$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50160158.6%352 W · 249 L+2.6wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c4…e6a5backed Alastair Gray66c757.58$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50025957.1%148 W · 111 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed Alastair Gray67c750.56$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018462%114 W · 70 L+9.5wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa838…bccebacked Alastair Gray70c714.28$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006264.5%40 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa1a9…e22ebacked Jie Cui23c701.02$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.691,28439.2%503 W · 781 L-12.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Jie Cui36c643.17$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.553,71145.3%1,680 W · 2,031 L-6.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Jie Cui57c620.97$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.244,47451.7%2,311 W · 2,163 L+133.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Jie Cui34c608.16$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.697,75347.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L+39.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2978…b511backed Jie Cui22c607.63$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.5544032.7%144 W · 296 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Jie Cui36c604.3$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.997745.2%442 W · 535 L-0.9wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f35…95dabacked Jie Cui61c600$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23246544.3%206 W · 259 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8d3…acf8backed Alastair Gray20c551.24$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4512030%36 W · 84 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-19.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6945…729cbacked Alastair Gray18c513.22$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0518932.3%61 W · 128 L+0.7wins0.00per pick32cpaid+496.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Alastair Gray66c501.13$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3302,05859.5%1,225 W · 833 L-1.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Jie Cui47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26599139.9%395 W · 596 L-9.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Jie Cui38c499.99$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.72,22945%1,002 W · 1,227 L+3.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7c7…3b08backed Alastair Gray63c480.68$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.6650958%295 W · 214 L-26.5wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-7.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Alastair Gray44c480.4$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.022,15054.1%1,164 W · 986 L-1.7wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x664a…fc5fbacked Jie Cui20c463.06$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.6263440.9%259 W · 375 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54b2…0f1ebacked Alastair Gray63c454.99$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.646341.3%26 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Jie Cui35c442$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.987,18349.7%3,568 W · 3,615 L+112.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x041b…d3ebbacked Alastair Gray40c420.24$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17015752.2%82 W · 75 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-0.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed19…83babacked Alastair Gray16c387.42$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.7684736%305 W · 542 L-35.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Jie Cui55c363.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.641,85348.4%897 W · 956 L-32.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Jie Cui67c358.09$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.472,09944.5%935 W · 1,164 L-51.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b35…51b3backed Alastair Gray79c348.08$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.9835360.9%215 W · 138 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe891…4b25backed Alastair Gray60c341.36$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20416349.7%81 W · 82 L+6.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9a6…0009backed Jie Cui31c327.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.168241.5%34 W · 48 L-5.7wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-24.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x820a…ca12backed Jie Cui64c314.99$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.733442.5%142 W · 192 L-0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Jie Cui37c313.26$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.186,65250.7%3,373 W · 3,279 L+263.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x15b5…ef23backed Alastair Gray47c290.55$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.51811.1%2 W · 16 L-4.7wins-0.26per pick37cpaid-75.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Jie Cui54c290.37$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.4880341.8%336 W · 467 L-20.6wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Alastair Gray44c280.91$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.134,65048.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L+31.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Jie Cui35c263.84$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.218,70242.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L-165.1wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Alastair Gray41c263.07$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.066,84048.8%3,341 W · 3,499 L+58.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Jie Cui42c256$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.4854345.3%246 W · 297 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cb6…96d1backed Jie Cui80c250$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5046565.6%305 W · 160 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ad…7889backed Alastair Gray68c236.42$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.9856070.7%396 W · 164 L-14.5wins-0.03per pick73cpaid-4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4865…904dbacked Alastair Gray66c227.27$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15037071.9%266 W · 104 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c26…d474backed Alastair Gray45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10088935.2%313 W · 576 L+1.6wins0.00per pick35cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51ff…4818backed Alastair Gray75c218.51$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.88666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+7.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Alastair Gray42c210.29$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.291,21841.1%500 W · 718 L-30.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f5…8314backed Jie Cui39c203.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.1911753%62 W · 55 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x550c…55fdbacked Jie Cui58c202.56$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.962035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-44.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Alastair Gray50c200.94$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.471,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfced…676ebacked Alastair Gray79c200$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick73cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Jie Cui44c199.39$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.761,02843.3%445 W · 583 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Jie Cui43c197.41$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.414,76547%2,238 W · 2,527 L-82.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x400d…e759backed Alastair Gray74c193.24$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14360856.6%344 W · 264 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c13…ef2ebacked Alastair Gray76c184.54$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa74c…1f49backed Alastair Gray75c166.66$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12514674%108 W · 38 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick75cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf57c…66febacked Jie Cui22c165.22$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.229727.8%27 W · 70 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick24cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10ff…ff77backed Alastair Gray63c160.96$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.498055.4%543 W · 437 L+3.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Jie Cui51c156.86$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.8651052%265 W · 245 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Jie Cui27c156.5$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.173,79854.9%2,087 W · 1,711 L+111.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6495…6cd7backed Alastair Gray64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008248.8%40 W · 42 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa99…f152backed Alastair Gray64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10073558.6%431 W · 304 L-26.1wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98af…b216backed Alastair Gray26c155$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.717617%30 W · 146 L-15.9wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-45.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5028…9bb7backed Jie Cui65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.852759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+29.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xec3e…11c0backed Jie Cui13c153$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.119628.1%27 W · 69 L-6.4wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-31.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe658…2c42backed Jie Cui26c150$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11139842.2%168 W · 230 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0625…96babacked Alastair Gray34c147.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.32737%10 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-45.5%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xddf5…aaa3backed Alastair Gray69c145.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10069253.3%369 W · 323 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8453…76bfbacked Alastair Gray11c141.66$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162661.5%16 W · 10 L+5.0wins+0.19per pick42cpaid+33.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x962e…1d75backed Alastair Gray63c141.27$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8940360.8%245 W · 158 L-0.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0417…9248backed Jie Cui62c138.85$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.188154.3%44 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.