Asian League · resolved market
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ff606b99c24d4c886534599d596a64de569f7c053b4512c9176e268c5af2e24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,969
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,310
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,969 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 2,368$1,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,341.13 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb7…02d8backed Over | 38c | 2,053$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$785.07 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 63c | 1,585$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 61c | 1,015$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.02 | 1,110 | 49.5%549 W · 561 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 62c | 841.15$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.19 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 830.31$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.72 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 37c | 646.05$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.4 | 1,356 | 45.5%617 W · 739 L | +15.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 46c | 639.13$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 40c | 299$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 62c | 222.85$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.71 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e1…f17fbacked Under | 72c | 208.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 24.5%24 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 62c | 169.71$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 38c | 131.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 59c | 99.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 62c | 86.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.9 | 135 | 63.7%86 W · 49 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 61c | 82.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 197 | 51.8%102 W · 95 L | +15.3wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 41c | 61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 41c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -8.2wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 405 | 50.6%205 W · 200 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x550c…55fdbacked Under | 63c | 46.74$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f4…2df9backed Under | 71c | 39.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 30c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 66 | 24.2%16 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 67c | 23.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 63c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 62c | 18.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 62c | 18.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 62c | 18.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 62c | 18.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Beijing Guoan FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
- Spread: Beijing Guoan FC (-2.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
- Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-1.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
- Spread: Dalian Yingbo FC (-2.5)Beijing Guoan FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.