Asian League · resolved market
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9e96a64db32554c4a5a6b4f41279fa3b90ac2b57d0c50103860e12e40733268
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 58c | 1,720$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.84 | 182 | 57.1%104 W · 78 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 36c | 1,391$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.67 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Under | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 63c | 459.43$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.76 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Over | 27c | 448.15$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 43c | 447.56$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.89 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe843…0699backed Under | 55c | 398.36$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.36 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -37%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 67c | 363.7$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.01 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 34c | 347.27$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.17 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 64c | 285.46$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.56 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 38c | 250$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 285 | 32.3%92 W · 193 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…edc9backed Under | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 59cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 36c | 112.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 387 | 37.5%145 W · 242 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Over | 30c | 111.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 276 | 39.5%109 W · 167 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x550c…55fdbacked Over | 27c | 108.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 40c | 99.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…e90dbacked Under | 63c | 96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 58c | 95.44$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.09 | 340 | 50.9%173 W · 167 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked Under | 56c | 84.84$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 44c | 65.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 59c | 59.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 54c | 47.28$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.79 | 324 | 57.1%185 W · 139 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Under | 68c | 17.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…fe26backed Under | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Avispa Fukuoka (-2.5)Kyōto Sanga FC won
- Spread: Kyōto Sanga FC (-2.5)Avispa Fukuoka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.