Asian League · resolved market
Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4cc9afee05ce80f6b23cc017e3d9f86a7a62eb866e03d7484431a9a55c38cd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 872.19$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.65 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over | 69c | 599.95$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.99 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 58c | 554.67$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.79 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 37c | 191.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed Under | 36c | 176.11$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Over | 65c | 153.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.92 | 134 | 63.4%85 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 39c | 150.17$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 43c | 138.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 54c | 123.43$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 257 | 42%108 W · 149 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…2564backed Under | 41c | 122.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 297 | 45.1%134 W · 163 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 61c | 72.27$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 213 | 67.6%144 W · 69 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…87c3backed Over | 61c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 276 | 39.5%109 W · 167 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 35c | 43.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 69c | 42.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4148…4397backed Over | 51c | 39.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…f271backed Under | 32c | 32.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…3c59backed Over | 50c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 70c | 24.36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 36 | 80.6%29 W · 7 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 65c | 21.89$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…af55backed Over | 70c | 20.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Avispa Fukuoka vs. Kyōto Sanga FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Avispa Fukuoka (-2.5)Kyōto Sanga FC won
- Spread: Kyōto Sanga FC (-2.5)Avispa Fukuoka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.