Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x085c689665ea218bd272a5b3ab30cf60500de476ee86b20cce116afb29fb93e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Eintracht Frankfurtof BV Borussia 09 Dortmund, Eintracht Frankfurt
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 18c | 1,021$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.79 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 79c | 766.92$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.57 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d3…e506backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 25c | 672.84$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c22…0c2cbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 79c | 277$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.17 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74a0…1be2backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 23c | 186.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.81 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x550c…55fdbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 24c | 183.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…9419backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 14c | 151.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 18c | 104.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…f7aebacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…a686backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 28c | 39.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 71c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7d…9b6cbacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 75c | 25.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Eintracht Frankfurt | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Eintracht Frankfurt | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-2.5)this page
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 1.5Over won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 2.5Over won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 3.5Over won
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)Eintracht Frankfurt won
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- Spread: Eintracht Frankfurt (-2.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.