TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pistons (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pistonsof Pistons, Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$768,753
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$820,211

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $768,753 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 364 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Pistons49c150,000$73,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76,50016841.1%69 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72d8…5213backed Cavaliers51c125,501$64,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,005.412240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-24%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Pistons50c97,460$48,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,729.7887451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Cavaliers50c90,000$45,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,00043148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6211…b89ebacked Cavaliers49c84,773$41,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,538.568148.1%39 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4f8…96a4backed Pistons50c71,648$35,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,8241100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac25…433fbacked Cavaliers50c50,000$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,0008038.8%31 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Pistons50c44,049$21,820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,229.4925248.4%122 W · 130 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Cavaliers51c40,000$20,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,40020758%120 W · 87 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Pistons50c40,000$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,00017251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Pistons48c39,905$19,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,687.6972648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Cavaliers50c30,000$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,00015952.8%84 W · 75 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Cavaliers50c29,619$14,810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,809.57650%38 W · 38 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4852…67c4backed Cavaliers52c29,143$15,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,019.275655.4%31 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Cavaliers48c28,378$13,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,738.9369848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Pistons50c24,037$11,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,124.7366248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Cavaliers51c18,697$9,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,498.4814538.6%56 W · 89 L-12.9wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9b1e…82c9backed Pistons51c17,647$9,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,647.066243.5%27 W · 35 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0f0…bad3backed Cavaliers50c14,874$7,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,510.28944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Pistons51c14,195$7,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,955.481,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pistons58c10,546$6,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,466.132,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x418d…88a3backed Cavaliers51c10,500$5,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,35510248%49 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c0a…a9bebacked Cavaliers50c10,200$5,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1002437.5%9 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid+4.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Cavaliers50c10,106$5,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,072.0217247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf284…b9f9backed Cavaliers50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00018651.1%95 W · 91 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Pistons51c9,804$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,803.9290650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Pistons51c9,804$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,803.9263746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Pistons49c9,000$4,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,56024252.5%127 W · 115 L+18.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+13.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Cavaliers43c8,088$3,478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,478.021,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab1c…aaddbacked Pistons48c8,000$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,159.912343.5%10 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+32.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Pistons57c7,551$4,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,246.071,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Pistons51c7,452$3,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,651.611,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Pistons51c7,048$3,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,453.6232351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Pistons50c7,000$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,50036549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Pistons50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Pistons50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00047856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Cavaliers49c5,841$2,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,853.2555251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked Pistons50c5,221$2,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,610.58348.2%40 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24b3…a5a4backed Pistons51c5,098$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,498.0411249.1%55 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Cavaliers51c4,873$2,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,473.434,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3dc…eaa8backed Cavaliers52c4,514$2,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,347.4130%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Cavaliers49c3,648$1,788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,787.551,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers39c3,336$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,294.618,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Cavaliers51c3,333$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.8322041.4%91 W · 129 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked Cavaliers51c3,171$1,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,617.1612451.6%64 W · 60 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Pistons50c3,021$1,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,510.537355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Pistons49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,53057950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84a6…b044backed Pistons49c2,868$1,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,462.92250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Cavaliers50c2,800$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.21,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Cavaliers26c2,742$718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.261,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Pistons75c2,675$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.9243269.2%299 W · 133 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfe6…fcc9backed Pistons50c2,623$1,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,311.531338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf83…248bbacked Pistons49c2,490$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.91643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Pistons51c2,353$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.9422036.8%81 W · 139 L+0.9wins0.00per pick36cpaid-13.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Pistons49c2,000$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,02056453.9%304 W · 260 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Cavaliers50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Cavaliers50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Pistons51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.789447.9%45 W · 49 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7fa…44e5backed Pistons51c1,811$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.451428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.17per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d8d…95b0backed Cavaliers53c1,518$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8004245.2%19 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Cavaliers51c1,443$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$732.524,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd70b…dcb1backed Cavaliers52c1,404$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7308333.7%28 W · 55 L-12.7wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-30%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xb6dd…7af9backed Cavaliers51c1,300$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66327246.7%127 W · 145 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecc3…ff02backed Pistons49c1,293$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$659.43837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5df…382dbacked Pistons50c1,292$646 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.1616335.6%58 W · 105 L-12.2wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-17.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Cavaliers40c1,224$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.4168838.5%265 W · 423 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Pistons49c1,188$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.7465045.1%293 W · 357 L-11.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed Pistons51c1,176$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.477834.6%27 W · 51 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid+1.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Pistons68c1,110$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.321,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Pistons49c1,100$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.9945146.1%208 W · 243 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Cavaliers51c1,067$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.8644740.7%182 W · 265 L-27.5wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-9.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x695d…60d5backed Pistons49c1,030$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.34264.3%27 W · 15 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+27%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xacb6…e3bbbacked Pistons50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5006266.1%41 W · 21 L+9.0wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+28.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Cavaliers50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50013642.6%58 W · 78 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1da3…2f94backed Cavaliers50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002850%14 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6859…fb90backed Cavaliers50c990$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4956053.3%32 W · 28 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x78a2…9d46backed Cavaliers51c980.39$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006662.1%41 W · 25 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc5b…5443backed Pistons51c980.39$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.3912542.4%53 W · 72 L-11.1wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-18.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e5b…2b2dbacked Pistons51c980.39$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.392060%12 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Cavaliers51c975.08$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.291,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf83b…44a2backed Pistons50c969.75$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.4715246.7%71 W · 81 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf20f…3b33backed Pistons49c967.35$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.3518343.7%80 W · 103 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Pistons49c899.95$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.9862051.1%317 W · 303 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd3…74d4backed Pistons51c866.76$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.712828.6%8 W · 20 L-5.1wins-0.18per pick47cpaid-35.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe9ac…8de4backed Pistons51c853.35$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$418.1414854.1%80 W · 68 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe7e…6d00backed Cavaliers24c833.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011034.5%38 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked Pistons51c823.53$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.5328448.2%137 W · 147 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Pistons49c816.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.334348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9438…3d6abacked Cavaliers51c814.67$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.4838947.6%185 W · 204 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d4a…e7cabacked Pistons50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4003432.4%11 W · 23 L-4.7wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-32%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Cavaliers51c791$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.321,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e84…768ebacked Cavaliers52c746.15$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38813644.9%61 W · 75 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Pistons49c735.29$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3756,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd52c…6c59backed Cavaliers51c686.27$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3505139.2%20 W · 31 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Cavaliers40c600$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2402,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Pistons57c597.01$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.7152861.9%327 W · 201 L+32.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+10.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa0dc…586cbacked Cavaliers47c595.74$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28028838.2%110 W · 178 L-17.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Cavaliers50c585$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.51,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc388…7af1backed Pistons51c574.64$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.57450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Cavaliers50c543.72$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.862,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.