TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pistons (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Pistonsof Pistons, Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,013
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,614

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,013 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbca0…9705backed Cavaliers55c4,367$2,382 inLost-$2,381.8130551.5%157 W · 148 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Pistons44c3,868$1,702 inWon+$2,16632846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Cavaliers51c2,626$1,352 inLost-$1,352.0369848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc0c…cfc9backed Cavaliers52c1,950$1,005 inLost-$1,004.52646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf405…9df2backed Pistons61c1,639$1,000 inWon+$639.3443269.2%299 W · 133 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Pistons51c1,110$571 inWon+$538.971,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Pistons46c1,042$481 inWon+$561.561638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Pistons49c637.8$313 inWon+$325.1976653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xabce…2f87backed Cavaliers65c611.38$400 inLost-$40018844.7%84 W · 104 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Pistons48c591.98$284 inWon+$307.832,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8230…5121backed Pistons22c363.38$80 inWon+$283.4420837.5%78 W · 130 L+38.2wins+0.18per pick19cpaid+115.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Pistons48c350$168 inWon+$1821,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed Pistons51c300$153 inWon+$14712851.6%66 W · 62 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Pistons52c299.99$156 inWon+$1441,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86b3…7650backed Cavaliers42c258.69$109 inLost-$108.745543.6%24 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Cavaliers40c201$81 inLost-$81.12,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f3…73e6backed Cavaliers25c168.87$42 inLost-$42.225016%8 W · 42 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-39%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75c1…22e4backed Pistons75c167.2$125 inWon+$42.22365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a76…2890backed Cavaliers42c145.35$61 inLost-$61.0516052.5%84 W · 76 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x804d…632fbacked Pistons58c145.35$84 inWon+$61.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0283…37d4backed Cavaliers31c130.93$41 inLost-$40.591136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8778…fe54backed Cavaliers39c128.21$50 inLost-$504332.6%14 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc671…b0c7backed Cavaliers39c128.21$50 inLost-$509348.4%45 W · 48 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Pistons50c125$63 inWon+$62.537665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x32d6…a8f5backed Pistons65c109$71 inWon+$38.456946.4%32 W · 37 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdca9…0898backed Pistons66c108.17$71 inWon+$37.074839.6%19 W · 29 L-5.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1646…2f81backed Pistons70c95$67 inWon+$28.510954.1%59 W · 50 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf3…f535backed Cavaliers54c88.33$48 inLost-$48.1324332.9%80 W · 163 L-22.7wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-19.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe1cc…28a0backed Cavaliers60c82.69$50 inLost-$5029665.5%194 W · 102 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07ed…041bbacked Pistons63c79.37$50 inWon+$29.374434.1%15 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Pistons42c68.8$29 inWon+$39.855251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe619…6342backed Cavaliers59c50.85$30 inLost-$3022844.7%102 W · 126 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cavaliers35c50$18 inLost-$17.51,75848.7%856 W · 902 L+28.3wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe43…244dbacked Pistons77c32.41$25 inWon+$7.56580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ad…795cbacked Pistons79c25.32$20 inWon+$5.3252461.6%323 W · 201 L-0.3wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Cavaliers48c20.84$10 inLost-$101,28323.4%300 W · 983 L-178.2wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-40.2%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.