TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 220.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,027
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,564

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,027 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2b46…684dbacked Over25c1,606$403 inLost-$402.841,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1de1…8f45backed Under75c1,603$1,202 inWon+$400.641353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Over50c938.82$470 inLost-$470.469848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over27c598.84$163 inLost-$163.3676653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x473d…caabbacked Under56c532.75$300 inWon+$232.754742.6%20 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2efa…8a01backed Under50c410$205 inWon+$2056352.4%33 W · 30 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Over51c377.08$194 inLost-$194.1332846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Over32c366.25$116 inLost-$115.9526839.2%105 W · 163 L-0.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over14c362.99$51 inLost-$51.3253842%226 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa19…e444backed Under50c289.63$145 inWon+$144.821485.7%12 W · 2 L+5.0wins+0.36per pick50cpaid+71.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over19c267.77$51 inLost-$50.851,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fce…c02abacked Over9c251.59$23 inLost-$23.345540%22 W · 33 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+54.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x86b3…7650backed Under48c250$120 inWon+$1305543.6%24 W · 31 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over30c200$60 inLost-$602,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef85…2c38backed Under70c200$140 inWon+$603647.2%17 W · 19 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over16c186$29 inLost-$29.221,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over13c147.11$20 inLost-$19.7652230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbbc…3122backed Under62c143$89 inWon+$54.347953.2%42 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Under58c127.83$74 inWon+$53.762347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over42c115.21$48 inLost-$48.3230551.5%157 W · 148 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fd7…d5a3backed Under50c100$50 inWon+$505343.4%23 W · 30 L-5.6wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x52f8…ad19backed Under58c86.21$50 inWon+$36.2113342.9%57 W · 76 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a0f…7cbebacked Under75c73.33$55 inWon+$18.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x499c…2f8ebacked Under67c71.85$48 inWon+$23.855251.9%27 W · 25 L-6.2wins-0.12per pick64cpaid-21.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked Under63c60$38 inWon+$2236243.9%159 W · 203 L-9.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4388…9ce4backed Under51c58.82$30 inWon+$28.8219952.3%104 W · 95 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Over41c55$22 inLost-$22.466274.2%46 W · 16 L+11.3wins+0.18per pick56cpaid+27.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xdb3d…58f5backed Over25c47.09$12 inLost-$11.7714153.9%76 W · 65 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Over40c30$12 inLost-$1261638.5%237 W · 379 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x202f…f2f7backed Under79c27.66$22 inWon+$5.935841.4%24 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed Under60c26.25$16 inWon+$10.4614359.4%85 W · 58 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under52c20$10 inWon+$9.689850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b59…31b4backed Under75c20$15 inWon+$54100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+106.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c2e…3924backed Under72c19.44$14 inWon+$5.443253.1%17 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.