TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Jalen Duren: Points O/U 15.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,703
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,720

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,703 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf58c…0b79backed No53c685.66$365 inWon+$320.667150.7%36 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff8…8a76backed Yes46c500$230 inLost-$23013751.1%70 W · 67 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe768…b331backed No55c400$220 inWon+$18039864.3%256 W · 142 L+33.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x969b…6e6ebacked Yes45c313.39$141 inLost-$14110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb7d…7862backed Yes53c189.82$100 inLost-$10021843.6%95 W · 123 L-15.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed No47c131.43$62 inWon+$69.6656050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f08…d224backed Yes45c126.6$57 inLost-$56.853125.8%8 W · 23 L-6.8wins-0.22per pick48cpaid-46.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xbd38…99d4backed Yes47c109.16$51 inLost-$51.425657%146 W · 110 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed No55c108.19$59 inWon+$48.8726755.1%147 W · 120 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d11…a3b8backed Yes51c88$45 inLost-$44.88728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick55cpaid-63.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x70c1…6701backed Yes43c63.54$27 inLost-$27.322934.5%10 W · 19 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed No48c60$29 inWon+$31.243752.6%230 W · 207 L+18.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x764d…96aebacked Yes45c53.08$24 inLost-$23.894341.9%18 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked No53c47.18$25 inWon+$22.1721056.7%119 W · 91 L-0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb890…9847backed Yes47c47.18$22 inLost-$22.17540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4388…9ce4backed No53c40.57$22 inWon+$19.0719952.3%104 W · 95 L+8.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4194…19dfbacked No52c29.99$16 inWon+$14.4650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb91c…ed66backed Yes47c23.74$11 inLost-$11.165058%29 W · 21 L+8.2wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+42.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.