TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pistons (-12.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Cavaliersof Pistons, Cavaliers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,829
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,985

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,829 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9495…9a27backed Cavaliers56c3,716$2,081 inWon+$1,635.1969848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Pistons44c1,277$562 inLost-$561.7830551.5%157 W · 148 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ce5…141bbacked Pistons44c1,120$492 inLost-$492.15944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked Pistons44c1,010$444 inLost-$444.242835.7%10 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-31.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Pistons43c263.99$112 inLost-$112.4155251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Pistons44c227.61$100 inLost-$10029040.3%117 W · 173 L-7.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1f2…4f6dbacked Pistons44c175$77 inLost-$774746.8%22 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x09d4…5f81backed Cavaliers58c130$75 inWon+$54.64626.1%12 W · 34 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-40%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7a2e…3ef0backed Cavaliers57c70$40 inWon+$29.826345.6%120 W · 143 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d2a…9ee3backed Cavaliers57c50$28 inWon+$21.585248.9%417 W · 435 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf58…2bf4backed Cavaliers56c27.39$15 inWon+$11.9919445.9%89 W · 105 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcf3…f535backed Pistons44c25.54$11 inLost-$11.2424332.9%80 W · 163 L-22.7wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-19.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.