TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Tobias Harris: Points O/U 18.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,088
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,220

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,088 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb581…0308backed No61c249.99$152 inLost-$152.556050.4%282 W · 278 L+10.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0159…db47backed No64c235.02$150 inLost-$150.39614.9%3 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked Yes39c219$85 inWon+$133.5924949%122 W · 127 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd38…99d4backed No61c199.98$122 inLost-$121.9925657%146 W · 110 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes37c108.1$40 inWon+$68.3933730.3%102 W · 235 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4d3…4b1fbacked Yes39c100$39 inWon+$617751.9%40 W · 37 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x13a9…e573backed Yes35c100$35 inWon+$6512347.2%58 W · 65 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed No55c90$50 inLost-$49.51,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x31c7…eca3backed Yes45c90$41 inWon+$49.53132.3%10 W · 21 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-32.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x579a…d402backed Yes39c76.92$30 inWon+$46.921346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed No60c75$45 inLost-$4579650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbf89…0fb1backed Yes40c75$30 inWon+$453554.3%19 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd755…61a1backed Yes36c65$23 inWon+$41.64037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked No65c23.08$15 inLost-$1521056.7%119 W · 91 L-0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.