Asian League · resolved market
Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-05-06?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc5b7c979a47371ab2fe9076a24d53fedea1c81e0862768652bd11f3a181a53a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 35c | 5,717$1,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,975.56 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 69c | 4,797$3,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,511.11 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…c18ebacked No | 66c | 950.87$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.96 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…301cbacked Yes | 76c | 737.5$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.88 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 50c | 527.11$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.27 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked No | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 18c | 381.59$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.35 | 843 | 47.7%402 W · 441 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked No | 31c | 355$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 142 | 47.2%67 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 34c | 335.57$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 34c | 307.65$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.05 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 18c | 299.54$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.32 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 39c | 199.55$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 29c | 169.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 361 | 42.4%153 W · 208 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 35c | 164.05$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.68 | 404 | 48%194 W · 210 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…387ebacked Yes | 57c | 163.52$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.31 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 35c | 162.74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.35 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 25c | 148.37$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 820 | 53.8%441 W · 379 L | +25.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 61c | 146.59$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 282 | 51.4%145 W · 137 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0c…1249backed No | 15c | 99.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 73c | 96.89$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 276 | 39.1%108 W · 168 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked No | 43c | 86.92$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 37c | 82.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 69c | 78.05$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Yes | 63c | 77.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 162 | 52.5%85 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 18c | 75.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 60c | 74.07$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.6 | 325 | 60.3%196 W · 129 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…e471backed Yes | 80c | 65.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked No | 66c | 60$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.6 | 98 | 59.2%58 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 21c | 52.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 185 | 42.7%79 W · 106 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cc…28a0backed No | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 192 | 68.2%131 W · 61 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Yes | 32c | 45.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 79c | 45.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked No | 31c | 39.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 159 | 71.1%113 W · 46 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed No | 44c | 38.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…c38cbacked Yes | 35c | 35.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 69c | 33.72$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 245 | 48.6%119 W · 126 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf81e…b0c5backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…f457backed Yes | 73c | 32.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b03…13eebacked Yes | 33c | 32.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cef…72b2backed No | 45c | 32.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 65c | 30.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 208 | 60.1%125 W · 83 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89db…d0efbacked No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf12…582fbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aba…debfbacked Yes | 64c | 29.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed No | 37c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 154 | 70.8%109 W · 45 L | +16.1wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 218 | 54.1%118 W · 100 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…09a8backed Yes | 67c | 20.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd183…87aebacked Yes | 65c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Yes | 67c | 18.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 149 | 49%73 W · 76 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 64c | 17.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked No | 68c | 16.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 76c | 13.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki win on 2026-05-06?this page
- Will Fagiano Okayama win on 2026-05-06?No won
- Will V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Fagiano Okayama end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.