Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Axolotl vs FlyQuest RED (BO3) - VCT Game Changers North America Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63df493273ed40200761d793db6e942d46df66a20b8febb33a9c9b4e26683ebc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FlyQuest REDof Axolotl, FlyQuest RED
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,583
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bc…decabacked Axolotl | 33c | 5,367$1,762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,761.82 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked FlyQuest RED | 67c | 3,396$2,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,114.63 | 287 | 43.2%124 W · 163 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefbc…b344backed FlyQuest RED | 67c | 1,500$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.5 | 165 | 47.9%79 W · 86 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked FlyQuest RED | 67c | 1,001$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.89 | 848 | 38.2%324 W · 524 L | -50.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2a…9c0abacked Axolotl | 34c | 949.09$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…42dcbacked Axolotl | 28c | 491.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.54 | 97 | 37.1%36 W · 61 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed FlyQuest RED | 65c | 138.82$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.59 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1efb…dd8abacked FlyQuest RED | 72c | 119.31$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked FlyQuest RED | 67c | 92.42$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 962 | 45.1%434 W · 528 L | -18.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a0…18ffbacked FlyQuest RED | 75c | 87.96$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d3…bab9backed FlyQuest RED | 67c | 82.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed FlyQuest RED | 68c | 80.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 463 | 47.1%218 W · 245 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf5…b1d0backed FlyQuest RED | 65c | 69$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked FlyQuest RED | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 312 | 27.6%86 W · 226 L | -33.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed FlyQuest RED | 68c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 202 | 48.5%98 W · 104 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6609…4e73backed FlyQuest RED | 69c | 37.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked FlyQuest RED | 74c | 29.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 907 | 33.1%300 W · 607 L | -89.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Axolotl | 65c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 998 | 46%459 W · 539 L | -27.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked FlyQuest RED | 68c | 18.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked FlyQuest RED | 69c | 14.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 321 | 57.6%185 W · 136 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Axolotl vs FlyQuest RED (BO3) - VCT Game Changers North America Group Stagethis page
- Valorant: Axolotl vs FlyQuest RED - Map 2 WinnerFlyQuest RED won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.