UFC · resolved market
Dana White's Contender Series: Gary Balletto vs. Sean Clancy Jr. (Welterweight, Main Card)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x640427f98bb1b5050ef24e240890b31e337fba1a3005d806a8b4f7268d621997
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sean Clancy Jr.of Gary Balletto, Sean Clancy Jr.
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2fca…fd38backed Sean Clancy Jr. | 4c | 10,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,600 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Gary Balletto | 12c | 5,041$601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$601.43 | 86 | 51.2%44 W · 42 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Gary Balletto | 4c | 2,631$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.03 | 157 | 36.9%58 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Gary Balletto | 11c | 2,336$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.26 | 138 | 36.2%50 W · 88 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Gary Balletto | 12c | 2,073$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.26 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Gary Balletto | 11c | 1,910$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Gary Balletto | 11c | 1,688$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.67 | 117 | 58.1%68 W · 49 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…3426backed Gary Balletto | 13c | 1,348$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.74 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Gary Balletto | 6c | 522.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.28 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Gary Balletto | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Gary Balletto | 7c | 498.17$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5173…c07cbacked Gary Balletto | 12c | 485.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b9…ed1fbacked Gary Balletto | 7c | 468.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf51…8bfabacked Gary Balletto | 11c | 450.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x598a…b143backed Gary Balletto | 4c | 450$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Gary Balletto | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe663…e9f8backed Gary Balletto | 11c | 236.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85b3…33efbacked Gary Balletto | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…2226backed Gary Balletto | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +155.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Gary Balletto | 17c | 120.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6865…6033backed Gary Balletto | 11c | 112.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0846…6e2dbacked Gary Balletto | 15c | 69.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd4…cd45backed Gary Balletto | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dana White's Contender Series: Gary Balletto vs. Sean Clancy Jr. (Welterweight, Main Card)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- Will Sean Clancy Jr. win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.