Tennis · resolved market
ITF Sapporo: Mana Kawamura vs Natsuho Arakawa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x643a59c8434fc7e6bac3c28d20a024740aeca378687ad224a5ab2e62903a7c2c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natsuho Arakawaof Mana Kawamura, Natsuho Arakawa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Mana Kawamura | 35c | 999.6$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.4 | 6,792 | 36.9%2,505 W · 4,287 L | -98.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Natsuho Arakawa | 64c | 852.98$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.47 | 6,512 | 54.5%3,546 W · 2,966 L | +289.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Mana Kawamura | 69c | 634.88$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.07 | 521 | 52.2%272 W · 249 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Natsuho Arakawa | 31c | 573.94$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.28 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Natsuho Arakawa | 66c | 332.67$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.56 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Mana Kawamura | 35c | 329.25$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.95 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Mana Kawamura | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4,975 | 38.6%1,922 W · 3,053 L | -19.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb7…3644backed Mana Kawamura | 72c | 138.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 264 | 51.5%136 W · 128 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Natsuho Arakawa | 66c | 133$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.17 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Natsuho Arakawa | 28c | 132.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.07 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Natsuho Arakawa | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.03 | 5,325 | 28.8%1,533 W · 3,792 L | -21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Mana Kawamura | 31c | 120.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 1,870 | 16%299 W · 1,571 L | -314.3wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Natsuho Arakawa | 65c | 103.66$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.28 | 435 | 52.9%230 W · 205 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Mana Kawamura | 34c | 102.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…a117backed Natsuho Arakawa | 66c | 97.94$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.36 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Mana Kawamura | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Mana Kawamura | 68c | 57.82$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 870 | 60.2%524 W · 346 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Natsuho Arakawa | 62c | 54.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Mana Kawamura | 68c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1,794 | 60.2%1,080 W · 714 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Natsuho Arakawa | 71c | 29.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 7,968 | 50.7%4,038 W · 3,930 L | +92.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Mana Kawamura | 33c | 29.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,842 | 41%755 W · 1,087 L | -31.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Natsuho Arakawa | 65c | 29.29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca8…ab36backed Natsuho Arakawa | 68c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Natsuho Arakawa | 70c | 21.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 227 | 55.1%125 W · 102 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd436…18a9backed Natsuho Arakawa | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.