Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Millwall FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6453ad525234ea6501c5593a8bfafa77891d665c478b4b7aebf7bdda71e821da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Norwich City FCof Millwall FC, Norwich City FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Millwall FC | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 162 | 32.1%52 W · 110 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1f…6a93backed Millwall FC | 21c | 474.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Norwich City FC | 80c | 350.05$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.37 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Millwall FC | 22c | 310$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed73…8f5abacked Millwall FC | 26c | 254.88$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…9f9abacked Norwich City FC | 74c | 254.88$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Millwall FC | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 286 | 33.9%97 W · 189 L | +19.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Norwich City FC | 78c | 131.55$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.94 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efb…c73ebacked Millwall FC | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Norwich City FC | 79c | 72.59$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Norwich City FC | 78c | 15.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Millwall FC (-1.5)this page
- Millwall FC vs. Norwich City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Millwall FC vs. Norwich City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Millwall FC vs. Norwich City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Millwall FC vs. Norwich City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Millwall FC vs. Norwich City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Norwich City FC (-1.5)Millwall FC won
- Spread: Norwich City FC (-2.5)Millwall FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.