Asian League · resolved market
Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64562d2a13d04c9e590ca640c26a2f7cce42de7a8e7a0056e3ffc7c4226092f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 2,713$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.38 | 5,963 | 46%2,744 W · 3,219 L | +46.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 42c | 2,482$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,440.55 | 196 | 33.2%65 W · 131 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 71c | 1,999$1,423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.02 | 2,528 | 42.2%1,067 W · 1,461 L | +53.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 21c | 1,944$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 151 | 19.2%29 W · 122 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 56c | 1,738$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$973.27 | 218 | 30.7%67 W · 151 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d9…01bbbacked Over | 25c | 1,500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 245 | 23.3%57 W · 188 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd411…7a18backed Over | 50c | 1,005$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 57c | 994.9$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.83 | 1,766 | 50.2%887 W · 879 L | +31.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 47c | 717.47$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.76 | 399 | 54.6%218 W · 181 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 46c | 700$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 21c | 619.54$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.83 | 2,520 | 39.8%1,002 W · 1,518 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 58c | 507$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.87 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 58c | 383$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.14 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26f2…1761backed Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 29c | 300$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.3 | 126 | 34.1%43 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Under | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 54c | 185.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 174 | 40.2%70 W · 104 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 79c | 178.4$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 706 | 52.3%369 W · 337 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b2…92d6backed Over | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4912…b76fbacked Under | 44c | 132.82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…07c7backed Over | 58c | 122.41$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 42c | 99.96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 175 | 45.7%80 W · 95 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b24…4247backed Over | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 45c | 81.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.81 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 58c | 68.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 1,235 | 49.9%616 W · 619 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 47c | 67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 122 | 44.3%54 W · 68 L | +9.6wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 44c | 56.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 155 | 49%76 W · 79 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Over | 58c | 53.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…cdfcbacked Under | 73c | 33.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…94cdbacked Under | 68c | 32.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 56c | 29.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 471 | 55.8%263 W · 208 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3c…6751backed Under | 70c | 23.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 54c | 23.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 543 | 54.9%298 W · 245 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 69c | 19.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 159 | 71.1%113 W · 46 L | +15.5wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Over | 58c | 18.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2102…087dbacked Under | 65c | 16.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Shanghai Haigang FC vs. Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Shanghai Haigang FC (-1.5)Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC won
- Spread: Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC (-1.5)Shanghai Haigang FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.