La Liga · resolved market
Will Osasuna win on 2025-09-20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6468543f35fa3d53569b307d2e57a2a8e40f5c0371857a1de49fc35cd281669b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,533
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,533 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Yes | 17c | 8,833$1,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,501.61 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 17c | 2,500$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…edb3backed Yes | 45c | 984.24$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.47 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…9834backed Yes | 39c | 938.15$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.64 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 69c | 891.14$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.3 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…b035backed Yes | 7c | 715$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Yes | 16c | 475.37$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.06 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 73c | 442.21$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.87 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 17c | 440$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.77 | 146 | 21.9%32 W · 114 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc5…6fa1backed Yes | 29c | 336.86$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 17c | 321.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe565…5d64backed Yes | 18c | 277.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed No | 68c | 255$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.75 | 139 | 69.8%97 W · 42 L | +30.1wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 65c | 210$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.72 | 269 | 30.5%82 W · 187 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 73c | 191.34$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.44 | 256 | 48.4%124 W · 132 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 21c | 184.19$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2635…5408backed Yes | 16c | 135.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 17c | 85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked Yes | 30c | 42.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…675abacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93f2…da0ebacked No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Osasuna win on 2025-09-20?this page
- Will Villarreal vs. Osasuna end in a draw?No won
- Will Villarreal win on 2025-09-20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.