Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x647f09b2ab37f7565f4b93fe0e4d5b41151cadb5e35d2e69e1219e58eb401c83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 34c | 362$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.87 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 337.37$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.46 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 44c | 300.02$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.6 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 73c | 191.67$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 182.27$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 176.8$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 68c | 176.03$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.82 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…7683backed Yes | 9c | 151.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 59c | 99.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.99 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 60c | 74.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.61 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 18c | 72.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 41c | 65.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 57c | 61.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.46 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 34c | 54.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 42c | 54.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 34c | 53.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 48.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 62c | 47.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 62c | 45.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 56c | 44.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…8fe9backed No | 68c | 43.64$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…bd79backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe419…8aedbacked No | 70c | 38.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7284…b0f2backed Yes | 45c | 37.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 112 | 42%47 W · 65 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 46c | 36.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 47c | 35.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 39c | 34.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 61c | 32.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 57c | 32.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 31.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 64c | 31.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…266abacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 79c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 44c | 24.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b88…63dfbacked Yes | 47c | 22.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 75°F or below on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on August 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on August 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.