Bundesliga · resolved market
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6488a2c500fc497e4b790c96ffb67acae4f157cd51ddbe37e61f708b3b5c508d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,933
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,933 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed07…886abacked No | 67c | 9,999$6,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,299.67 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +4.0wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 33c | 4,887$1,597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.82 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 22c | 4,400$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…e7dbbacked No | 72c | 4,009$2,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.58 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 14c | 3,074$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.21 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0609…b093backed Yes | 5c | 2,859$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 3c | 1,281$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.34 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,250$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 1c | 1,069$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0df…8f41backed No | 70c | 851$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.3 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Yes | 27c | 551$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.77 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed No | 74c | 405.41$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b01…998abacked Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…de01backed Yes | 27c | 360.07$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 25c | 297.49$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.37 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 73c | 270.7$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 26c | 191.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 189.55$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 26c | 150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 73c | 149.26$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.3 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…a5cebacked Yes | 27c | 148.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…5ed9backed No | 75c | 146.67$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eac…525ebacked Yes | 26c | 134.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…d25abacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2e…3c65backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 123.02$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 27c | 117.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.47 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d9…2f4abacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cff…83c4backed Yes | 27c | 88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.26per pick | 63cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 14c | 80.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e94…f7bfbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Yes | 27c | 75.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd302…0311backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Yes | 27c | 71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked No | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 50 | 76%38 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dce…b663backed No | 75c | 31.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 73cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…9f00backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 73cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 75c | 26.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.62 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a24…3845backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 115 | 63.5%73 W · 42 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…33d5backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-01-31?No won
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-01-31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.