Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-01-31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a17f59dbde6af5a8e9e274da739f7dc038dfd64e4ecdc4bdf8f546c522b9654
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,574
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $68,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,574 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44bc…e86fbacked Yes | 25c | 4,368$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked No | 78c | 3,857$3,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.13 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…5b78backed No | 78c | 3,266$2,543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$723.96 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2b…4564backed No | 78c | 3,000$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 78c | 2,350$1,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.41 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 78c | 2,336$1,814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.1 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 78c | 1,500$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Yes | 26c | 1,346$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 155 | 40.6%63 W · 92 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 22c | 1,219$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.78 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 21c | 1,186$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…0febbacked Yes | 22c | 1,030$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.95 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 2c | 1,013$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c38…de5abacked No | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 2c | 928$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 23c | 700$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb023…f142backed Yes | 22c | 700$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 5c | 653.33$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 78c | 499.99$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…c751backed No | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 22c | 400$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.07 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 22c | 350.65$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 21c | 299.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Yes | 25c | 278.4$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…9762backed Yes | 28c | 238.25$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.51 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +260.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed No | 79c | 238.09$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0843…97f5backed No | 78c | 228.21$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.21 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbb…7fdabacked Yes | 21c | 190$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed No | 80c | 189.24$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 110 | 65.5%72 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 24c | 175$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 76c | 167.76$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b01…998abacked Yes | 22c | 161.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a1…2254backed Yes | 21c | 143$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 78c | 139.05$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed No | 78c | 135.8$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.88 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.14 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 75c | 131.36$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.19 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3393…3519backed No | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d2a…3daebacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe221…5334backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked No | 76c | 100.4$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3e…ef94backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 23c | 99.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd306…4320backed Yes | 21c | 93.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75fd…9a86backed Yes | 21c | 87.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3928…78d0backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f8…8908backed No | 80c | 78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b5…42e7backed Yes | 22c | 72.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +6.6wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 115 | 40.9%47 W · 68 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84a4…21c4backed No | 77c | 70.95$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d43…fc99backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 30 | 93.3%28 W · 2 L | +7.8wins | +0.26per pick | 67cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…84d1backed Yes | 21c | 60.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 42cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Yes | 22c | 59.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a3…b461backed Yes | 22c | 58.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 78c | 56.02$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Yes | 21c | 53.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8d…e22dbacked Yes | 23c | 53.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4712…5bd6backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd7…1596backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 258 | 55.4%143 W · 115 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb7…7a94backed Yes | 24c | 46.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30e1…0badbacked No | 80c | 44.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 15.4%8 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 151 | 60.9%92 W · 59 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9f…5b6fbacked No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 78c | 31.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9737…a9e9backed No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc40d…4813backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe09c…f300backed No | 79c | 25.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…35dfbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…cbe8backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe49d…2f17backed No | 79c | 19.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a32…0188backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 67cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 80c | 13.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.78 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1853…68ffbacked No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x208a…ae0dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-01-31?this page
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw?No won
- Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-01-31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.