South American Leagues · resolved market
CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6495f74913a1a4b90a71658c3d5837f174b49dc8078a1de854d3a922b5cf7b3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,809
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 43c | 7,043$3,027 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,016.61 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked Under | 59c | 2,881$1,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,700 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…9f72backed Over | 44c | 2,124$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 20c | 1,794$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,442.62 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 57c | 1,600$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$912 | 248 | 55.2%137 W · 111 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 1,259$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$788.11 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 57c | 1,125$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.25 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 79c | 1,027$812 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811.79 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4520…e501backed Under | 73c | 1,011$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.03 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a6…d584backed Under | 57c | 700$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399 | 165 | 58.2%96 W · 69 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde19…e90dbacked Under | 66c | 600.36$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.24 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 57c | 600$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…40d5backed Under | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 41c | 487.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.91 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 57c | 400$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 24c | 300$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 99 | 25.3%25 W · 74 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Under | 57c | 300$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171 | 288 | 51.7%149 W · 139 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 63c | 245.96$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.95 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 37c | 245.96$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.95 | 129 | 40.3%52 W · 77 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 41c | 243.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.9 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under | 57c | 240$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.8 | 158 | 57.6%91 W · 67 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Under | 58c | 196$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.68 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 41c | 146.28$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.31 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 57c | 139$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.23 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6e…c21abacked Over | 31c | 93.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Under | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 220 | 58.6%129 W · 91 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a5…d093backed Under | 57c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 32c | 70.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 242 | 57%138 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 189 | 59.3%112 W · 77 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 57c | 52.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…789abacked Under | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8acc…cc29backed Under | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 134 | 65.7%88 W · 46 L | +13.1wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Under | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 153 | 59.5%91 W · 62 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 78c | 39.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a48…dc30backed Over | 41c | 31.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec3e…11c0backed Under | 79c | 30.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Under | 74c | 24.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -6.9wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfa03…2ebbbacked Under | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football: O/U 2.5this page
- CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football: O/U 1.5Over won
- CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football: O/U 3.5Under won
- CD Tolima vs. Club Nacional de Football: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Club Nacional de Football (-1.5)CD Tolima won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.