NHL · resolved market
Spread: Sharks (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6496070cf9d3ab230609d2eb54e49534b8a4d7dfb2a1231f8847eadfa2f4ce49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blackhawksof Sharks, Blackhawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4488…e319backed Sharks | 28c | 2,500$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.99 | 272 | 43.4%118 W · 154 L | -16.8wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9870…b9d3backed Blackhawks | 72c | 2,084$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.88 | 315 | 50.8%160 W · 155 L | -11.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Blackhawks | 69c | 680.37$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.91 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Sharks | 31c | 645.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0439…3f80backed Blackhawks | 72c | 550.07$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.11 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Sharks | 31c | 340$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Blackhawks | 69c | 331.25$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 1,230 | 53.7%661 W · 569 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Sharks | 31c | 241.94$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Sharks | 32c | 223$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee4f…c0f0backed Blackhawks | 72c | 208.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.48 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Blackhawks | 68c | 195$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Blackhawks | 69c | 177.36$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.98 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Blackhawks | 70c | 171.41$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.42 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Blackhawks | 80c | 158.48$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.7 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Sharks | 30c | 122$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Sharks | 28c | 113.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Sharks | 27c | 66.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…99e5backed Sharks | 31c | 52.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdefa…e9e3backed Sharks | 29c | 49.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 74 | 51.4%38 W · 36 L | +8.5wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0b…065abacked Sharks | 31c | 49.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Sharks | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb51…733cbacked Sharks | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…068dbacked Blackhawks | 71c | 19.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Blackhawks | 72c | 14.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.93 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sharks (-1.5)this page
- Sharks vs. BlackhawksBlackhawks won
- Sharks vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Blackhawks (-1.5)Blackhawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.