Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64b7b4d2d7b4b3fe7608ac9867c6e1da62c029a3dac308b67dc5bd5c8f1be785
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Azure Dragon Gamingof Azure Dragon Gaming, Alliance Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,423
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,423 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Alliance Guardians | 24c | 1,046$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.32 | 1,276 | 32.1%409 W · 867 L | -67.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Azure Dragon Gaming | 61c | 730.42$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.96 | 1,417 | 51.3%727 W · 690 L | +49.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Alliance Guardians | 51c | 454.56$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.5 | 848 | 38.2%324 W · 524 L | -50.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Azure Dragon Gaming | 62c | 357.04$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.36 | 1,608 | 45.2%727 W · 881 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Azure Dragon Gaming | 70c | 290$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.81 | 103 | 49.5%51 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Alliance Guardians | 34c | 142.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Azure Dragon Gaming | 66c | 131.87$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.77 | 796 | 50%398 W · 398 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Azure Dragon Gaming | 70c | 123.57$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 237 | 45.1%107 W · 130 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Alliance Guardians | 32c | 116.21$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 1,490 | 46.6%695 W · 795 L | -16.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Azure Dragon Gaming | 64c | 113.62$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 520 | 50%260 W · 260 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Azure Dragon Gaming | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.25 | 553 | 48.3%267 W · 286 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Alliance Guardians | 34c | 91.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.03 | 907 | 33.1%300 W · 607 L | -89.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Alliance Guardians | 56c | 85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.45 | 962 | 45.1%434 W · 528 L | -18.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Alliance Guardians | 27c | 81.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 139 | 33.1%46 W · 93 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Azure Dragon Gaming | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 700 | 43.7%306 W · 394 L | -13.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Alliance Guardians | 39c | 74.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Alliance Guardians | 42c | 69.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.42 | 225 | 39.1%88 W · 137 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20f8…f1a7backed Alliance Guardians | 38c | 52.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Azure Dragon Gaming | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 421 | 40.4%170 W · 251 L | -26.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Alliance Guardians | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 155 | 35.5%55 W · 100 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked Azure Dragon Gaming | 62c | 45.05$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Alliance Guardians | 48c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 998 | 46%459 W · 539 L | -27.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4063…ea8dbacked Azure Dragon Gaming | 66c | 36.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Alliance Guardians | 28c | 36.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 241 | 40.2%97 W · 144 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Azure Dragon Gaming | 48c | 35.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.68 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Azure Dragon Gaming | 68c | 29.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21aa…fea9backed Azure Dragon Gaming | 63c | 20.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Azure Dragon Gaming (-2.5) vs Alliance Guardians (+2.5)Azure Dragon Gaming won
- Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group StageAzure Dragon Gaming won
- Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians - Map 2 WinnerAlliance Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.