Mls · resolved market
FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64ca0cc05336fc9bd1afd9b3164fc7e8920e642bb1d4c963f28cdf461757d6a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 12c | 1,400$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.4 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 21c | 394.75$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.95 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 12c | 365.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.92 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 12c | 324.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 12c | 323.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 78c | 308$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 29c | 219.92$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.78 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d56…1c7dbacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…0b6ebacked Under | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 70c | 36.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 71c | 15.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 64cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: FC Cincinnati O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: FC Cincinnati O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Seattle Sounders FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.