Mls · resolved market
Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfeec2a6aa88a07cdf805bc597acc46d3059f2f01cc1b2d74ae73cee19f29d813
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Sounders FCof FC Cincinnati, Seattle Sounders FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x851b…961ebacked FC Cincinnati | 36c | 3,265$1,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,161 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed FC Cincinnati | 21c | 894$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.74 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc5…e563backed FC Cincinnati | 50c | 619.14$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Seattle Sounders FC | 64c | 606.74$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.43 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked FC Cincinnati | 39c | 563$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.57 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Seattle Sounders FC | 64c | 376.66$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.6 | 200 | 43%86 W · 114 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed FC Cincinnati | 30c | 336.02$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.32 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 61c | 312$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.63 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Sounders FC | 62c | 309.65$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.79 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Seattle Sounders FC | 62c | 301.32$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.76 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Seattle Sounders FC | 64c | 299.99$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.28 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Seattle Sounders FC | 58c | 217.2$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.83 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Seattle Sounders FC | 63c | 145$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed FC Cincinnati | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Seattle Sounders FC | 58c | 112.39$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.73 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Seattle Sounders FC | 62c | 102.26$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Seattle Sounders FC | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Seattle Sounders FC | 50c | 91.7$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb77…1c78backed Seattle Sounders FC | 50c | 74.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Seattle Sounders FC | 50c | 70.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 63c | 69.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed Seattle Sounders FC | 66c | 62.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 140 | 62.1%87 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…0b6ebacked Seattle Sounders FC | 64c | 60.94$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed FC Cincinnati | 36c | 60.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed FC Cincinnati | 36c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…039bbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 50c | 39.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb663…f135backed Seattle Sounders FC | 50c | 39.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 50c | 37$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 61c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.19 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Seattle Sounders FC | 61c | 26.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…813ebacked Seattle Sounders FC | 64c | 22.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Seattle Sounders FC | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: FC Cincinnati O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: FC Cincinnati O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Seattle Sounders FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.