Mls · resolved market
FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cae600deb7b8f40206da3f544dd34c8549eb2db39e30dad21fc01efaa0cc7a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf40a…ea0abacked Over | 51c | 1,865$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.82 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 47c | 1,506$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.98 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 46c | 1,398$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.66 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 14c | 1,373$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.03 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 71c | 595.88$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.68 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 57c | 499.89$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.75 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 17c | 270.17$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 47c | 240$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.2 | 134 | 64.9%87 W · 47 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 10c | 206$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…6ca8backed Over | 63c | 189.01$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.01 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf423…31c4backed Under | 41c | 127$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Under | 13c | 115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ac…8b4cbacked Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 11c | 101.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…6f17backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 46c | 79.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 67c | 50.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaba…cf38backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 50c | 39.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 42c | 26.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 61c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: FC Cincinnati O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: FC Cincinnati O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Seattle Sounders FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.