Mls · resolved market
FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e8f9313477211bd9dd0af508527f8d77bfc2dec5bb5a65a28a1bf0ff49c66f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 13,123$6,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,413.54 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 50c | 11,200$5,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,599.95 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 2,245$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.9 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8762…0d85backed Over | 49c | 1,466$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$718.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 50c | 1,050$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.15 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 52c | 375$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 48c | 375$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 8c | 348.12$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4a…e7cabacked Over | 50c | 256.56$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 57c | 238.19$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.44 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe954…1ef1backed Under | 49c | 202.57$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.31 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 50c | 192$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 51c | 177.21$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.83 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 8c | 150.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 50c | 150.01$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.38 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.65 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 50c | 126.46$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.48 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 50c | 101.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d56…1c7dbacked Over | 50c | 100.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb904…3ef8backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 50c | 97.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.57 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 26c | 78.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Under | 50c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7091…96f8backed Under | 51c | 50.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44dc…802dbacked Over | 50c | 43.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…490ebacked Under | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099c…e42cbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 50c | 39.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 128 | 48.4%62 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82fb…0b6ebacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 50c | 32.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Under | 51c | 32.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 51c | 25.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.73 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Under | 50c | 25.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66fe…42c6backed Over | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 51c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 102 | 57.8%59 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 51c | 20.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 64cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: FC Cincinnati O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: FC Cincinnati O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- FC Cincinnati vs. Seattle Sounders FC: Seattle Sounders FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-1.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: FC Cincinnati (-2.5)Seattle Sounders FC won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5)FC Cincinnati won
- Spread: Seattle Sounders FC (-2.5)FC Cincinnati won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.