Europa Conference League · resolved market
MŠK Žilina vs. HNK Hajduk Split: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64cac95d32c8a343098fb246afe13159acd2e17703c361cf53a1f5c91fbb2e19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,797
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,797 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed Under | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef84…6872backed Under | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa704…11c1backed Over | 76c | 2,618$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.26 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 24c | 1,971$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.5 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…c85dbacked Under | 10c | 1,429$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.86 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cfe…c83cbacked Under | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…2307backed Under | 15c | 965.94$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.39 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86a6…1b3ebacked Under | 34c | 716$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 58c | 694.72$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.97 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Under | 34c | 624$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.94 | 351 | 46.2%162 W · 189 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0852…655cbacked Under | 2c | 621.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 9c | 578.85$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 179 | 41.9%75 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c09…b9b3backed Under | 8c | 524.72$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +198.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabd9…dc3abacked Under | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 68c | 453.35$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.02 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 294.66$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.99 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 9c | 289.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 814 | 40.5%330 W · 484 L | -21.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Under | 25c | 195.79$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…9b21backed Under | 17c | 191.9$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 18c | 129.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked Under | 46c | 88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 79c | 87.72$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.42 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…ab85backed Under | 26c | 73.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 80c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…b4f7backed Over | 76c | 47.63$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Over | 74c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 370 | 43.8%162 W · 208 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdae…6ad2backed Over | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 206 | 60.2%124 W · 82 L | -15.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 74c | 34.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 76c | 29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 172 | 33.7%58 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…c45ebacked Over | 76c | 23.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc15a…5bd2backed Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 58cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MŠK Žilina vs. HNK Hajduk Split: O/U 1.5this page
- MŠK Žilina vs. HNK Hajduk Split: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- MŠK Žilina vs. HNK Hajduk Split: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- MŠK Žilina vs. HNK Hajduk Split: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- MŠK Žilina vs. HNK Hajduk Split: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- MŠK Žilina vs. HNK Hajduk Split: HNK Hajduk Split O/U 1.5Under won
- MŠK Žilina vs. HNK Hajduk Split: MŠK Žilina O/U 0.5Over won
- MŠK Žilina vs. HNK Hajduk Split: MŠK Žilina O/U 1.5Over won
- MŠK Žilina vs. HNK Hajduk Split: O/U 0.5Over won
- MŠK Žilina vs. HNK Hajduk Split: O/U 2.5Over won
- MŠK Žilina vs. HNK Hajduk Split: O/U 3.5Under won
- MŠK Žilina vs. HNK Hajduk Split: O/U 4.5Under won
- MŠK Žilina vs. HNK Hajduk Split: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: HNK Hajduk Split (-1.5)MŠK Žilina won
- Spread: HNK Hajduk Split (-2.5)MŠK Žilina won
- Spread: MŠK Žilina (-1.5)HNK Hajduk Split won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.