Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64d86c255ebeedc075f69c6bb5dd2810669c409ff07cccf2955ff25e1549c81f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,993
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,993 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff78…df44backed Yes | 69c | 306.51$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.99 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +16.2wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 299.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 284.64$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.7 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 74c | 174.48$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.72 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes | 12c | 147.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 16c | 143.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 23c | 133.84$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 106.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 21c | 98.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 74c | 97.74$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 26c | 90.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 71c | 75.62$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 35c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 25c | 61.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 30c | 60.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes | 33c | 49.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 46.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…bd82backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac6…b663backed No | 70c | 35.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 67 | 41.8%28 W · 39 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 68c | 28.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.22 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 72c | 28.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked No | 69c | 27.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 26.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 68c | 21.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccf…9ea3backed No | 75c | 17.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 76c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C or below on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on February 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C or higher on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.