Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Xtreme Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64f635064d5686184625d97872693eb541dc734d13062f1422f503c9bc5cf2e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xtreme Gamingof Team Liquid, Xtreme Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xffe9…a70ebacked Team Liquid | 45c | 24,456$10,996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,995.72 | 88 | 47.7%42 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Xtreme Gaming | 55c | 21,818$12,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,818.33 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…5eeebacked Xtreme Gaming | 55c | 6,514$3,577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,936.78 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed Xtreme Gaming | 56c | 3,520$1,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,548.79 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e64…89c3backed Team Liquid | 45c | 2,578$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,160 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b39…7fbcbacked Team Liquid | 44c | 2,200$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6e…fa6fbacked Team Liquid | 45c | 1,107$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf7…6d62backed Team Liquid | 45c | 1,030$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Team Liquid | 38c | 1,001$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.35 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Xtreme Gaming | 64c | 832.03$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.94 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf311…a208backed Xtreme Gaming | 56c | 756.45$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Xtreme Gaming | 55c | 600$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.08 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Xtreme Gaming | 54c | 506.92$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.18 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x642c…21a7backed Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 406.74$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.63 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…dfcebacked Team Liquid | 45c | 340$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x254b…e8abbacked Xtreme Gaming | 56c | 330$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bac…d241backed Team Liquid | 44c | 296.83$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.61 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…03d0backed Team Liquid | 44c | 270.5$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.02 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1522…70febacked Team Liquid | 44c | 233.4$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.36 | 193 | 52.3%101 W · 92 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Team Liquid | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Team Liquid | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e3…d5f4backed Team Liquid | 51c | 196.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 166 | 41.6%69 W · 97 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…e8c1backed Team Liquid | 43c | 191.19$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.21 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked Team Liquid | 46c | 179.7$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.66 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Xtreme Gaming | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Xtreme Gaming | 57c | 154.45$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 131 | 57.3%75 W · 56 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed Xtreme Gaming | 56c | 146.42$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.42 | 151 | 47.7%72 W · 79 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe988…8343backed Xtreme Gaming | 49c | 133.49$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Team Liquid | 44c | 125$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 311 | 26%81 W · 230 L | -17.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Team Liquid | 45c | 120.92$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Team Liquid | 45c | 118.09$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 463 | 54.6%253 W · 210 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f8…abfebacked Team Liquid | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x312c…0f42backed Team Liquid | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 372 | 52.7%196 W · 176 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 105.66$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked Team Liquid | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Team Liquid | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fc…5922backed Team Liquid | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Xtreme Gaming | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b5…c5a8backed Xtreme Gaming | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2338…27f6backed Team Liquid | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28dd…f376backed Team Liquid | 45c | 80.31$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e04…28a9backed Team Liquid | 45c | 74.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 176 | 51.1%90 W · 86 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…44f9backed Team Liquid | 46c | 73.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.59 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffd…08fabacked Team Liquid | 45c | 68.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 140 | 52.9%74 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Team Liquid | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 436 | 47.5%207 W · 229 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2d…25e7backed Team Liquid | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Xtreme Gaming | 55c | 63.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 152 | 50%76 W · 76 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeab…fd91backed Team Liquid | 44c | 61.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 44cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9835…f8fdbacked Team Liquid | 36c | 56.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab1a…4620backed Team Liquid | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x101f…b386backed Team Liquid | 50c | 47.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 321 | 54.8%176 W · 145 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Team Liquid | 46c | 47.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…ab49backed Xtreme Gaming | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8772…982dbacked Team Liquid | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2260…ed12backed Team Liquid | 46c | 30.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Xtreme Gaming | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Xtreme Gaming | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 294 | 32.3%95 W · 199 L | -19.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…af35backed Xtreme Gaming | 54c | 20.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Xtreme Gaming | 63c | 18.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 120 | 65.8%79 W · 41 L | +15.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +25%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Xtreme Gaming | 60c | 17.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Xtreme Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague PlayoffsXtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 1 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 WinnerTeam Liquid won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.