NHL · resolved market
Spread: Lightning (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65082d3336d81ee07c833d0a0fe7357309ffbdbd6ed9d24af4b2f512ac70ae59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Panthersof Lightning, Panthers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7705…a442backed Lightning | 33c | 406.67$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.01 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Lightning | 34c | 298$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.36 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Lightning | 33c | 293.67$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.91 | 225 | 43.1%97 W · 128 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Panthers | 68c | 250$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x119d…4dd4backed Lightning | 35c | 180$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2f…a1fcbacked Lightning | 35c | 180$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Panthers | 67c | 149.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.67 | 74 | 71.6%53 W · 21 L | +7.2wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1e…42fbbacked Lightning | 35c | 140$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…ee8ebacked Lightning | 16c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Panthers | 67c | 125$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 605 | 49.3%298 W · 307 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Lightning | 33c | 123.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 403 | 40.9%165 W · 238 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Panthers | 67c | 99.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 216 | 48.1%104 W · 112 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…bd8abacked Panthers | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…2f16backed Panthers | 65c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Panthers | 66c | 83.33$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 97 | 60.8%59 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Panthers | 64c | 79.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 481 | 61.3%295 W · 186 L | +21.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Panthers | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 196 | 47.4%93 W · 103 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850b…b4f7backed Panthers | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c1…be25backed Panthers | 65c | 75$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84fc…9db4backed Panthers | 66c | 73.34$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Lightning | 32c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Panthers | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Panthers | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Panthers | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Panthers | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 107 | 52.3%56 W · 51 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Panthers | 67c | 49.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 190 | 46.8%89 W · 101 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e8…e615backed Panthers | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45cd…5285backed Panthers | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4271…26b0backed Panthers | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +73.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Lightning | 31c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Lightning | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed8d…a20dbacked Panthers | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Panthers | 66c | 23.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Panthers | 66c | 20.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x529e…27aabacked Panthers | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)this page
- Panthers vs. LightningPanthers won
- Panthers vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.