NHL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf105c42ed9ea34b14b031ba8e982a9dae0134d7647f7962dc7a44e47af97e949
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,184
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,071
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,184 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Under | 44c | 27,421$12,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,065.14 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…194dbacked Over | 56c | 19,815$11,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,718.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Over | 54c | 19,049$10,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,818.39 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Under | 46c | 10,488$4,854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,854.48 | 221 | 50.2%111 W · 110 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 45c | 7,855$3,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,529.8 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7104…afefbacked Over | 56c | 5,112$2,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,249.28 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Over | 55c | 4,830$2,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,173.48 | 566 | 49.5%280 W · 286 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 55c | 3,685$2,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,647.81 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 45c | 3,500$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x159f…5862backed Under | 45c | 3,287$1,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0500…6158backed Under | 46c | 2,433$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bae…bac0backed Over | 55c | 1,803$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 56c | 1,786$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.71 | 437 | 43%188 W · 249 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 58c | 1,717$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$716.84 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 46c | 1,453$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.64 | 484 | 52.3%253 W · 231 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 46c | 1,406$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.76 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Under | 45c | 999.99$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4662…807ebacked Over | 55c | 758.18$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.89 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 55c | 750$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.5 | 318 | 48.1%153 W · 165 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 44c | 563.07$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.75 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 55c | 494$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.3 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 69c | 437$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.97 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Under | 31c | 366.49$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.44 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 45c | 320$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Over | 56c | 276.79$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.79 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Under | 46c | 220$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.2 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 127 | 56.7%72 W · 55 L | +11.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x260c…7130backed Over | 56c | 214.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.29 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9852…111abacked Over | 55c | 144.46$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.46 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3228…b4e3backed Over | 55c | 143$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Under | 45c | 138$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 118 | 49.2%58 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ac…92a7backed Under | 43c | 122$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b2…918abacked Over | 57c | 122$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.46 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7533…285ebacked Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 46c | 107$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.22 | 607 | 41%249 W · 358 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…71f8backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 418 | 47.8%200 W · 218 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Over | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Under | 45c | 89.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…4c6dbacked Under | 45c | 84.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -9.6wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…5903backed Over | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked Under | 45c | 66.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4189…c0c2backed Under | 45c | 63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x273c…7a42backed Over | 54c | 55.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 181 | 59.7%108 W · 73 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 45c | 53.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 301 | 52.5%158 W · 143 L | +17.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb3…c801backed Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccd…5330backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa924…b1b9backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 337 | 35%118 W · 219 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9f…c934backed Over | 55c | 49.49$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 214 | 54.2%116 W · 98 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…8254backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Under | 46c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 285 | 42.8%122 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a7…b64dbacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd45e…f11dbacked Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…81e3backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed8d…a20dbacked Under | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 45c | 33.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 40c | 33.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…a31cbacked Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…ba9cbacked Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0e…7e25backed Under | 46c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5this page
- Panthers vs. LightningPanthers won
- Panthers vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.