NHL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19d8a55dfd1c3231a0b4f97dabc7a5601a50b66299ad76d53c8cecaeaa01c9af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,396
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4441…3551backed Under | 61c | 1,227$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 36c | 1,150$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737 | 1,406 | 47%661 W · 745 L | +58.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 17c | 474.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.35 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98ee…31cabacked Under | 58c | 452.47$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.43 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 55cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 26c | 349$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.88 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 46c | 225$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.5 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 55c | 201.4$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.77 | 346 | 53.2%184 W · 162 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 45c | 123$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d20…9871backed Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 42c | 107$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.06 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a7…8db6backed Under | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 55c | 55.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 94 | 51.1%48 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…f947backed Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedb5…ce8ebacked Under | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -8.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 43c | 34.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.92 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…5210backed Under | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Over | 44c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 71c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 60c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 26.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3580…a621backed Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 51cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…28c2backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5this page
- Panthers vs. LightningPanthers won
- Panthers vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Spread: Lightning (-1.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.