Premier League · resolved market
Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-03-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x651ec58855fb93f44d62b1b99a6a49a0fa8229c3446e42f8185f72fc0bcdb928
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,730 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 130 | 5.4%7 W · 123 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 4c | 2,545$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.36 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 2c | 1,502$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 2c | 927.4$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed No | 64c | 666$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.76 | 109 | 60.6%66 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x660d…56acbacked Yes | 38c | 523.66$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.99 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 36c | 477.53$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.5 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 38c | 357$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.66 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 62c | 250$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked No | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +11.5wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +32%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Yes | 28c | 138$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 38c | 97.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 845 | 49%414 W · 431 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 71c | 59.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 419 | 56.3%236 W · 183 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19fd…4533backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 38c | 47.04$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 223 | 35.4%79 W · 144 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 62c | 44.82$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 809 | 53.6%434 W · 375 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 63c | 37.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 62c | 34.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 62c | 34.31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 292 | 59.2%173 W · 119 L | +14.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…978cbacked No | 73c | 25.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-03-21?this page
- Will Derby County FC vs. Birmingham City FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Derby County FC win on 2026-03-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.