Premier League · resolved market
Will Derby County FC win on 2026-03-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb13e3035def11246cd165edda53ec4db42baa3e363509b01ee1ff6c1ae24704
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,075
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,075 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc43…96d3backed Yes | 34c | 8,928$3,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,881.62 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 43c | 7,519$3,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,240.44 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 28c | 5,369$1,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.56 | 1,004 | 46.3%465 W · 539 L | +25.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 72c | 4,747$3,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.14 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 65c | 3,000$1,950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,949.99 | 506 | 44.3%224 W · 282 L | -14.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 22c | 2,334$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.62 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 23c | 1,780$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.71 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1e…0cd2backed Yes | 35c | 1,444$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.06 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 65c | 1,226$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.4 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 69c | 670.37$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.81 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Yes | 34c | 652$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.32 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 65c | 607.58$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.27 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 38c | 464.98$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.61 | 111 | 25.2%28 W · 83 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 67c | 413.43$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277 | 758 | 50%379 W · 379 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…a66cbacked Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x862a…d26bbacked No | 67c | 322.79$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.27 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 809 | 53.6%434 W · 375 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…5e51backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.78 | 95 | 41.1%39 W · 56 L | -9.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 65c | 235.42$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.02 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed No | 65c | 217$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.05 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5282…82fcbacked Yes | 35c | 191.43$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.43 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 66c | 176.69$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.36 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed No | 32c | 150$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7c…82f2backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 67c | 134.14$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.27 | 390 | 52.6%205 W · 185 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78d8…cffcbacked Yes | 75c | 133.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.77 | 42 | 78.6%33 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 61c | 132$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.72 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d8…e72dbacked Yes | 38c | 127.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.13 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Yes | 34c | 120$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 137 | 27.7%38 W · 99 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed No | 66c | 113.13$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.67 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 52c | 98.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 67c | 89.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.01 | 1,163 | 57.4%667 W · 496 L | +40.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 37c | 83.13$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.51 | 419 | 56.3%236 W · 183 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc15…3a2ebacked No | 65c | 76.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 50c | 73.77$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.91 | 497 | 53.7%267 W · 230 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe76c…1c3cbacked No | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 56.1%74 W · 58 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed No | 31c | 68.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 98 | 28.6%28 W · 70 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 64c | 68.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 517 | 50.1%259 W · 258 L | +19.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8010…04e4backed Yes | 40c | 61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 83 | 75.9%63 W · 20 L | +17.2wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6e…bd37backed Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 66c | 51.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 845 | 49%414 W · 431 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1871…59e6backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 136 | 51.5%70 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb475…978cbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…ff2abacked Yes | 70c | 48.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…d33ebacked Yes | 38c | 43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 54c | 36.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 1,272 | 50.4%641 W · 631 L | -53.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…cb37backed Yes | 36c | 35.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.42 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Yes | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 241 | 46.1%111 W · 130 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 66c | 32.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 36c | 32.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19fd…4533backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5aea…eff2backed Yes | 69c | 23.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked No | 67c | 20.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x087f…2ebfbacked Yes | 71c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d90…3bbdbacked No | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…44edbacked No | 66c | 17.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derby County FC win on 2026-03-21?this page
- Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-03-21?No won
- Will Derby County FC vs. Birmingham City FC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.