Premier League · resolved market
Will Derby County FC vs. Birmingham City FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec5b11941419c6a93e390b18fb8d1a27786a587a8d4300f2bdf29b4095e50116
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,121 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 70c | 5,492$3,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,671.6 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 29c | 2,931$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.9 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 31c | 2,860$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.57 | 275 | 52.7%145 W · 130 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 28c | 1,498$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.01 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 1,393$1,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.61 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 71c | 700$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 31c | 690.23$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.97 | 300 | 57%171 W · 129 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 686.04$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.95 | 2,550 | 47.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ac…03e9backed Yes | 30c | 476.47$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.94 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe728…9d87backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Yes | 31c | 167.23$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.84 | 235 | 56.2%132 W · 103 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 68c | 162$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.48 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…d02bbacked No | 71c | 125.75$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaea…b079backed Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +58%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 69c | 95.88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 75c | 89$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 419 | 56.3%236 W · 183 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Yes | 31c | 75.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 106 | 55.7%59 W · 47 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 23c | 68.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 111 | 25.2%28 W · 83 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f23…6d15backed No | 72c | 66.78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…0ce5backed Yes | 36c | 60.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 28c | 59.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 1,204 | 50.7%610 W · 594 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed No | 72c | 48.61$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…fcd8backed Yes | 31c | 43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 28c | 40.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 845 | 49%414 W · 431 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 126 | 47.6%60 W · 66 L | +9.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 71c | 34.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 390 | 52.6%205 W · 185 L | +19.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf15…bc03backed Yes | 30c | 34.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefe…2d45backed No | 78c | 30.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 270 | 51.5%139 W · 131 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd985…1125backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 71c | 20.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 809 | 53.6%434 W · 375 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 80c | 17.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 76c | 16.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Derby County FC vs. Birmingham City FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Birmingham City FC win on 2026-03-21?No won
- Will Derby County FC win on 2026-03-21?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.