Europa Conference League · resolved market
PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x652e69d084a95f3146a422bdb397256c34c672701682725090fb704cd38ce1e0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Over | 4c | 4,905$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.94 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Over | 1c | 3,750$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 19.7%13 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 8c | 1,170$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.88 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 16c | 888.35$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.85 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed Under | 79c | 394.92$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.32 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Over | 19c | 377.86$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 14c | 274$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 106 | 27.4%29 W · 77 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 72c | 199.41$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.59 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Over | 21c | 176$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 19c | 92.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Over | 21c | 89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Over | 17c | 89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Over | 17c | 88.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b42…7cbebacked Over | 28c | 63.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Over | 21c | 59.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: O/U 5.5this page
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: Derry City FC O/U 0.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: Derry City FC O/U 1.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: PFK CSKA Sofia (-1.5)Derry City FC won
- Spread: PFK CSKA Sofia (-2.5)Derry City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.