Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: PFK CSKA Sofia (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b238181b8d0664d4c3ba38b20a811825f0e39778de45c35e224b94e204baa15
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Derry City FCof PFK CSKA Sofia, Derry City FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,801
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,084
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,801 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed PFK CSKA Sofia | 35c | 5,000$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 212 | 37.3%79 W · 133 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Derry City FC | 65c | 3,000$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 97 | 54.6%53 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Derry City FC | 69c | 1,836$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.55 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed PFK CSKA Sofia | 29c | 1,190$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.95 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Derry City FC | 65c | 863.59$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.26 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425e…ecfabacked Derry City FC | 75c | 380$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed PFK CSKA Sofia | 35c | 365.25$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.87 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed3…0a22backed Derry City FC | 65c | 300$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b043backed Derry City FC | 65c | 288$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…8df0backed PFK CSKA Sofia | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Derry City FC | 65c | 267.43$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Derry City FC | 75c | 252$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed PFK CSKA Sofia | 31c | 188.44$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Derry City FC | 64c | 147.02$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Derry City FC | 66c | 112.14$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.1 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c3…32a1backed PFK CSKA Sofia | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed PFK CSKA Sofia | 31c | 80.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Derry City FC | 72c | 76.14$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked PFK CSKA Sofia | 30c | 68.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Derry City FC | 70c | 59.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Derry City FC | 72c | 38.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked PFK CSKA Sofia | 44c | 30.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Derry City FC | 65c | 26.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Derry City FC | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Derry City FC | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Derry City FC | 70c | 14.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: PFK CSKA Sofia (-2.5)this page
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: Derry City FC O/U 0.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: Derry City FC O/U 1.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: PFK CSKA Sofia (-1.5)Derry City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.