Europa Conference League · resolved market
PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7542c8029f2fb200675170aeb738d579288b82a34a3f496ca65d964664099f13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 3,253$1,338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,337.78 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 34c | 2,598$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,714.83 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4502…9eedbacked Under | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…583cbacked Over | 26c | 765$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.31 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Under | 64c | 699.99$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 75c | 581.95$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.29 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 40c | 471.3$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.78 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 36c | 451.52$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.2 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 74c | 334.04$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.85 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 64c | 260.27$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.21 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 79c | 228.05$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Under | 60c | 210.11$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.07 | 144 | 43.8%63 W · 81 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 36c | 194.86$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.71 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Over | 33c | 153.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.45 | 156 | 28.2%44 W · 112 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 75c | 133.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 147 | 67.3%99 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 21c | 101$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 324 | 36.4%118 W · 206 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b42…7cbebacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 79c | 99.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 39c | 95.24$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 66c | 91.46$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 66c | 86.79$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.28 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 60c | 81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6216…1bd4backed Under | 26c | 79.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 61c | 57.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Over | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b4…7c3fbacked Over | 53c | 43.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Over | 34c | 42.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 68c | 39.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9565…ec9abacked Under | 68c | 37.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc26…459cbacked Under | 64c | 37.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 60c | 33.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Over | 34c | 33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 65c | 32.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 63c | 27.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 66c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee16…16a2backed Under | 67c | 18.66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Under | 65c | 15.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: O/U 3.5this page
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: Derry City FC O/U 0.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: Derry City FC O/U 1.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: PFK CSKA Sofia (-1.5)Derry City FC won
- Spread: PFK CSKA Sofia (-2.5)Derry City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.