Europa Conference League · resolved market
PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa1e83436ee9f1aad69db2cf860c98b1abaec3c7f2df602d36be549f201c14e0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,189
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,189 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 40c | 2,462$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.67 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x800a…0b4dbacked Over | 63c | 1,511$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.96 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 39c | 1,320$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.91 | 201 | 32.3%65 W · 136 L | -9.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5277…b271backed Over | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.39 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Under | 41c | 699.97$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.99 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 53c | 666.91$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.94 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 49c | 550.73$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.48 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 60c | 479.43$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.47 | 142 | 45.8%65 W · 77 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9e…a24bbacked Over | 45c | 467.32$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.23 | 156 | 28.2%44 W · 112 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbfba…583cbacked Over | 48c | 405.4$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.43 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 61c | 405.39$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.65 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 62c | 402.61$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d37…f790backed Under | 39c | 366.32$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 54c | 352.98$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.96 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +15.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d9…1059backed Over | 45c | 334.27$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.85 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +26%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa991…0935backed Over | 53c | 282.91$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.97 | 40 | 82.5%33 W · 7 L | +11.3wins | +0.28per pick | 54cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc8…4f5bbacked Over | 52c | 282$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.36 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Under | 37c | 252.08$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.44 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 63c | 250.41$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e27…08edbacked Over | 78c | 232.05$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…a8e0backed Under | 50c | 218.89$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 61c | 198.62$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 58c | 180.24$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…100dbacked Over | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 59c | 118.81$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 1,039 | 50%520 W · 519 L | +26.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Over | 57c | 116.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 58c | 114$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fc…2715backed Over | 54c | 99.24$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 52c | 75.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 116 | 74.1%86 W · 30 L | +18.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Under | 51c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Over | 52c | 74.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 123 | 55.3%68 W · 55 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 52c | 73.38$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 37c | 59.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 476 | 49.4%235 W · 241 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b4…7c3fbacked Over | 54c | 57.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 36c | 57.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 973 | 46%448 W · 525 L | -4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 44c | 55.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Under | 40c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 61c | 45.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7536…3e09backed Under | 42c | 41.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 45c | 39.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 62c | 34.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 501 | 54.7%274 W · 227 L | +20.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Under | 41c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 59c | 30.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.51 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2126…aeebbacked Over | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Under | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f2…131dbacked Over | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Over | 59c | 21.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: O/U 2.5this page
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: Derry City FC O/U 0.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: Derry City FC O/U 1.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- PFK CSKA Sofia vs. Derry City FC: PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 1.5Over won
- Spread: PFK CSKA Sofia (-1.5)Derry City FC won
- Spread: PFK CSKA Sofia (-2.5)Derry City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.