Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65420e80a15da44d4573d00d80d5752af256f5388f006f0b99acbdbb3c56c79d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,430
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,430 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 2c | 1,225$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 282.18$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 77c | 193.11$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.68 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 20c | 185$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.59 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 31c | 178.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 74c | 171.22$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 170.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 19c | 169.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 30c | 151.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 32c | 150.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.73 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 139.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 16c | 131.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 79c | 111.4$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 35c | 81.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 31c | 81.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 23c | 78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 15c | 76.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 69.57$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 24c | 59.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 58.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 28c | 50.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 70c | 48.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…c64dbacked Yes | 27c | 46.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x145d…98edbacked No | 77c | 43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 65c | 41.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.42 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 76c | 33.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…21fcbacked Yes | 32c | 31.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 29.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 28.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 67c | 27.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1275…e224backed No | 74c | 27.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed No | 79c | 25.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 77c | 25.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 64c | 23.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 71c | 22.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 79c | 22.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 69c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…6c52backed No | 67c | 21.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 71c | 21.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 75c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 175 | 70.3%123 W · 52 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff3…d6fabacked No | 71c | 19.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 70c | 18.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 69c | 16.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 75c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.62 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…4edcbacked No | 71c | 14.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.