Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b48c9c6875ae940b99f55e0c5c44cf5f2e658d63fe7f40c209251607b9ebbaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 10c | 370.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 56c | 178.55$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.75 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 58c | 149.26$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 44c | 142.01$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 138.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.5 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 38c | 115.24$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.4 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 37c | 103.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 14c | 100.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…a083backed Yes | 51c | 97.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 58c | 92.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.68 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 45c | 82.32$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 56c | 82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 60c | 72.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 69c | 71.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 41c | 69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 20c | 68.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 33c | 55.87$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 42c | 51.72$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 64c | 50.67$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…c64dbacked Yes | 56c | 46.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ed…3242backed No | 47c | 43.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 64c | 42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 77c | 41.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x673f…727bbacked No | 74c | 36.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4320…4a44backed No | 45c | 35.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 46c | 34.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 72c | 34.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 32.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…2de4backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 39c | 31.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8dc…263cbacked Yes | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 55c | 29.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 40c | 29.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 61c | 29.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 44c | 26.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.06 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c35…4801backed No | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 43c | 26.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…4edcbacked No | 38c | 26.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…8b09backed Yes | 58c | 25.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 146 | 38.4%56 W · 90 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 44c | 25.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…222fbacked No | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 53c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed Yes | 48c | 24.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…435ebacked Yes | 46c | 24.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c7f7backed Yes | 48c | 24.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 139 | 43.9%61 W · 78 L | -12.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed Yes | 48c | 23.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 57c | 23.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…ff15backed No | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 269 | 58.4%157 W · 112 L | -16.9wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…3268backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff3…d6fabacked No | 61c | 17.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…3b41backed Yes | 69c | 14.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on May 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on May 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.