Tennis · resolved market
Ningbo Open: Marketa Vondrousova vs Karolina Muchova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6542d4cb28c91c7033012e3cb19eb14d52955536290462383d7300d708462d4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Muchovaof Vondrousova, Muchova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Vondrousova | 53c | 7,252$3,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,852.64 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Muchova | 52c | 3,342$1,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,613.05 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Muchova | 47c | 1,327$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.55 | 170 | 46.5%79 W · 91 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Muchova | 53c | 1,150$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.5 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Muchova | 54c | 866$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.1 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Vondrousova | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f83…7252backed Vondrousova | 32c | 439$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.04 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Muchova | 49c | 280$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.78 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Muchova | 61c | 227$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.02 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Vondrousova | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Muchova | 45c | 150$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.5 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Muchova | 46c | 145.44$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.89 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Muchova | 77c | 87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3149…9762backed Muchova | 52c | 80.77$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Muchova | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Vondrousova | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a6…6fa0backed Muchova | 53c | 22.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.