South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Independiente win on 2026-03-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6554f6670237d568d046773dfc4eeb6a398b51a3c83870229226ecc4070b7354
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,709 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 25c | 1,054$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.13 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 774.65$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.36 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Yes | 4c | 750.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 118 | 19.5%23 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 78c | 654.92$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.5 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 54c | 633.84$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.17 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…010bbacked Yes | 38c | 515$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.65 | 212 | 51.9%110 W · 102 L | +14.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Yes | 4c | 500.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 52c | 491.01$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.68 | 517 | 49.9%258 W · 259 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 62c | 474.9$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.02 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…849ebacked Yes | 10c | 344.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…a19bbacked Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1e…6b94backed Yes | 46c | 260.26$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf3…80abbacked Yes | 13c | 242$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 101 | 46.5%47 W · 54 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdfff…cbddbacked Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ae…33b8backed Yes | 48c | 194.54$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.89 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 54c | 171.45$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.87 | 154 | 24%37 W · 117 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 52c | 125.46$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 3,407 | 51.3%1,749 W · 1,658 L | +21.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 12c | 94.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 17c | 64.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 27cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Yes | 26c | 61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 68c | 51.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 274 | 42%115 W · 159 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e1…0aefbacked Yes | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 179 | 50.8%91 W · 88 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 62c | 48.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 27c | 46.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 55c | 29.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.45 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 76c | 24.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa724…55cdbacked Yes | 47c | 24.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 55c | 24.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 212 | 66.5%141 W · 71 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 46c | 22.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Independiente win on 2026-03-10?this page
- Will CA Independiente vs. CA Unión end in a draw?Yes won
- Will CA Unión win on 2026-03-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.