South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Unión win on 2026-03-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe246f66b879d41855f4a67fbdeefd14128835f48f930dde1516204d018110dfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,737 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 70c | 18,443$12,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,843.03 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 29c | 10,170$2,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,255.08 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 31c | 3,642$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,498.4 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 64c | 1,952$1,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.33 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 75c | 1,926$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.44 | 181 | 60.2%109 W · 72 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 18c | 1,634$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,345.09 | 211 | 32.7%69 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 27c | 1,482$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.8 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 17c | 1,337$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.63 | 154 | 24%37 W · 117 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xede1…54cbbacked No | 77c | 1,292$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e8…50c2backed Yes | 80c | 1,288$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.78 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Yes | 79c | 890.31$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.35 | 93 | 63.4%59 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 19c | 792.3$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.61 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 30c | 758.46$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.16 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…53ebbacked No | 70c | 632$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.6 | 101 | 55.4%56 W · 45 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…a861backed Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 543.28$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.61 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 45c | 542.93$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.37 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Yes | 62c | 340$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.41 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 46c | 323.2$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.38 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 23c | 317.25$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.69 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 26c | 311.09$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.46 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Yes | 26c | 282$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.12 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd9…a643backed No | 35c | 253.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.1 | 96 | 49%47 W · 49 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Yes | 63c | 244$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.49 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x011c…f943backed No | 6c | 237.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.25 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…7971backed Yes | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0632…d1b7backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 28c | 155.71$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.2 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 68c | 152.61$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.76 | 457 | 46.8%214 W · 243 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…1be7backed Yes | 25c | 146.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked No | 18c | 146.75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.3 | 191 | 44.5%85 W · 106 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked No | 46c | 144.11$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.11 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3883…d357backed Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 25c | 119.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4868…c8d1backed No | 21c | 119.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +64.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…849ebacked Yes | 68c | 111.83$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 22c | 102$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.74 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x974e…8703backed No | 31c | 95.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.08 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4796…79fcbacked No | 26c | 95.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.13 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked No | 57c | 93$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.67 | 65 | 72.3%47 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc73b…c3e9backed Yes | 17c | 79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Yes | 25c | 68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 25c | 62.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 716 | 19.7%141 W · 575 L | -49.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 31c | 62.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf09b…5971backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf0…d1bdbacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 56.58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 76c | 52.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd87e…20ebbacked No | 40c | 48.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd186…5a61backed Yes | 31c | 48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…c18ebacked No | 78c | 47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 213 | 45.1%96 W · 117 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc62e…108dbacked No | 25c | 41.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fb…65d3backed Yes | 78c | 39.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa3…4d33backed Yes | 55c | 37.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…c4fcbacked No | 38c | 36.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c29…fb0bbacked No | 44c | 32.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed No | 41c | 31.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.52 | 114 | 61.4%70 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1628…c90bbacked No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Yes | 55c | 24.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked No | 75c | 15.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Unión win on 2026-03-10?this page
- Will CA Independiente vs. CA Unión end in a draw?Yes won
- Will CA Independiente win on 2026-03-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.